My favorite film of 2000 was Cameron Crowe’s Almost Famous. And Kate Hudson, in my mind, was going to take home an Oscar for her breakout performance as Penny Lane. She had garnered more than her share of critics prizes, plus a Golden Globe, and definitely had the buzz. So when the envelope was ripped open to reveal Marcia Gay Harden as the winner, I was more than a tad surprised. Harden had only won a single major award (NYFC), and Pollock, although well received, had made around ten dollars at the box office. Then I saw the movie. Harden was magnificent and so very deserving of her award. Was this, then, a case of AMPAS actually getting it right? Despite the Harden surprise, did the Oscar actually go to the best performance of that category?Deserved or not, it’s the surprises that make for an enjoyable Oscar night. As much as I continue to fume over the “Crash” upset, you must admit that it at least stirred things up a little bit.
So this is where the fun begins:
Will Hal Holbrook pull off an Alan Arkin/Don Ameche/Jack Palance victory over Javier Bardem? And if so, will it be chalked up to sentiment rather than admitting that Holbrook is actually terrific and equally deserving of an award? Bardem is brilliant and gives, along with Day-Lewis and Cotillard, one of the year’s unforgettable performances. But in his own way, in a completely different style, Holbrook is fabulous, too. This is where the apples & oranges thing comes into play. Makes me crazy.
Lots of ink is now being spilled over Cotillard’s dark-horse status. As much as I love Christie and would love to see her take home #2, I would be equally delighted to watch Cotillard snatch the prize for her performance as Piaf.
Will the great Ruby Dee’s nod to Beatrice Straight actually earn her a career-capping Oscar? It’s looking more and more possible. Poor Amy Ryan. Actually, the Supporting Actress category is the only place where there doesn’t seem to be a lock.
And so it goes. Whether any of this comes to pass, it’s the kind of fodder that always keeps me fretting until the Big Night (whatever that may be this year).
So, my predictions, for today anyway, are as follows:
PICTURE:
No Country (surprise: Blood)
DIRECTOR:
Joel and Ethan Coen (surprise: Schnabel)
ACTOR:
Daniel Day-Lewis (surprise: none)
ACTRESS:
Julie Christie (surprise: Cotillard)
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Javier Bardem (surprise: Holbrook)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett (surprise: Dee)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Diablo Cody (surprise: Tony Gilroy)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Joel and Ethan Coen (surprise: Christopher Hampton)
