I can't remember when I have anticipated a movie more than Rob Marshall's upcoming NINE. The teaser photos we've seen for several months, especially those of Daniel Day -Lewis and the goddess supreme Sophia Loren were enough to confirm my curiosity that the best director for the job had indeed assembled an amazing cast for what might possibly be the best movie adaptation of a Broadway musical since Bob Fosse's CABARET. Today, the first official trailer appeard on ITunes and it's my new obsession. If the movie is anything like the preview (and we all know how often that is NOT the case), then I'll probably lose my senses when the movie finally debuts in November. In an homage to Fellini, Fosse, Minnelli, and maybe his own CHICAGO, Marshall has apparently created something pretty magical indeed. I'm a big fan of the original Broadway production and the equally splendid revival a few years ago. But the images from the movie suggest this might be the best evocation yet of Maury Yeston's dreamy score. (Of course if the movie is a bomb, I'll deny ever having written this.)

You can see the trailer at FirstShowing and in lovely hd over at ITunes. Be Italian. Indeed.

We opened my production of Edward Albee's THE GOAT OR, WHO IS SYLVIA? last night at AtticRep. It could not have gone better, and I'm very proud of my splendid cast, crew and designers. And clearly our local theater critic for the Express News liked what she saw; this lovely blurb was posted on the ArtsBeat blog early this morning.

The photo above is a rehearsal shot of Andy Thornton and Gloria Sanchez as Martin and Stevie, imo Albee's most dynamic duo since George and Martha. Below are Andy and Gloria with Rick Frederick (L) and Robby Glass (R) as Ross and Billy, respectively, on Chris Sauter's truly amazing and beautiful set.

Samba Saravah

Things have been more than a little bit nuts lately; as a result, regular blog postings (never my strong suit to begin with) ground to a halt. In the midst of all the craziness, I have found myself drawn to the early vocal sytlings of Pierre Barouh and/or watching Jacques Demy's lovely and heartbreaking "Umbrellas of Cherbourg." Not quite sure what all of this means, but if anyone was going to compose the soundtrack to my life right now, I hope it would be Francis Lai or Michel Legrand.

Little Dorrit

The new adapation of Masterpiece Classic's "Little Dorrit" got off to a rousing start last night and quickly proved to be the best -- thus far -- of the the series latest crop of Dickens-inspired teledramas. It's not that I didn't care for the recent "Oliver Twist" ('tho I wasn't too wild about Timothy Spall's take on Fagin--and I usually love everything he does), but maybe I've just seen too many other adaptations. And the rebroadcast of the '99 "David Copperfield" seemed nothing more than a time filler (altho Maggie Smith's Aunt Betsy is a delight).

But this new "Dorrit" grabbed me right away. It's big and expansive and complete with Alun Armstrong on hand as the best possible Dickensian villain. OK, the streets of London are a bit too clean, the costumes perhaps a bit too lovely, and the dreaded debtors' prison not that particularly dreadful. But Andrew Davies' script is up to his brilliant "Bleak House" from a few years ago and the casting is top notch. Any opportunity to see Tom Courtenay, Judy Parfitt, Eddie Marsan and especially Matthew Macfadyen is reason enough for me to stick this one thru til the end.

A popular posting over at Awards Daily, courtesy of one very passionate and articulate Ben Woulds, features the author’s interesting list of all the Oscar Best Picture nominees ranked from worst (the ’62 remake of “Mutiny on the Bounty”) to the best (“Grand Illusion” takes the top spot followed by “Citizen Kane” and then “Brokeback Mountain”)

This, is of course, one person’s opinion, but it’s a very impressive undertaking. It generated, needless to say, lots of commentary, including some heated and hysterical feedback, not to mention a few rambling replies from yours truly.

I was inspired to do my own consideration of Oscar’s choices --and oversights-- and came up with my top five contenders for the best of the year. It’s actually an exhausting task; I only made it back fifteen years, but hey, it’s a start. (Besides, I’m tired and a little worn out after last night’s viewing, at long last of Melville’s great penultimate classic, “Le Cercle Rouge” in all its Criterion Collection glory…. but I digress).

So if anyone is interested, here are my picks going back to ’93. These are the top Five in my book as of tonight. Remember, anything could change. All it could take is another visit to, say, "The Wrestler" or "Road to Perdition" and everything starts falling apart.

An asterisk indicates my choice for the best of the best. Interestingly, I only agree with the Academy twice (“Return of the King” and “Schindler’s List”)

2008
*Milk/The Reader/ Revolutionary Road/ The Dark Knight/ Happy-Go-Lucky or In Bruges

2007
*Assassination of Jesse James…/ No Country for Old Men/ There Will Be Blood/ The Diving Bell and the Butterfly/ Atonement

2006
*The Lives of Others / Volver/ United 93/ Casino Royale/ Little Children

2005
*Brokeback Mountain/ Munich/ The New World/ A History of Violence /The Constant Gardener

2004
*Vera Drake/ Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind / The Motorcycle Diaries /La Mala Educacion/ Kinsey or Closer

2003
*LOTR: The Return of the King /Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World/ Elephant/ Lost in Translation/ Mystic River

2002
*Far From Heaven/ The Hours/ Y Tu Mama’ Tambien/ Habla con Ella / Chicago

2001
*Gosford Park/ Moulin Rouge!/ Mulholland Drive/ LOTR: The Fellowship of the Rings/
Black Hawk Down or Lagaan

2000
*Almost Famous/ Amores Perros/ Crouching Tiger…/ Billy Elliot/ Sunshine

1999
*Topsy Turvy/ All About My Mother/ The Insider/ The Talented Mr. Ripley/ American Beauty

1998
*The Thin Red Line/ Saving Private Ryan/ Out of Sight/ Gods & Monsters /Elizabeth

1997
*Boogie Nights/ LA Confidential/ Titanic/ The Ice Storm / The Sweet Hereafter or In & Out

1996
*Fargo/ Secrets & Lies/ Lone Star/ The English Patient/ Evita/

1995
*Sense & Sensibility/ Dead Man Walking/ Apollo 13/ Babe/ The Usual Suspects

1994
*Pulp Fiction/ Ed Wood/ Queen Margot/ Quiz Show/ The Madness of King George

1993
*Schindler’s List/ The Age of Innocence/ Short Cuts/ The Remains of the Day/ The Wedding Banquet

That monologue about the fig

I have not seen Ken Russell's marvelous (maybe brilliant?) "Women in Love" for several years. But I decided to give it another viewing last night when it showed up somewhere in the stratosphere of cable. Granted, the print wasn't that great but all that I remember -- Glenda Jackson's shocking and glorious performance, Larry Kramer's screenplay, that wacky score courtesy of Georges Delerue, the now famous full monty coupling-disguised-as-wrestling sequence, the drowning of the newlyweds --were still just as intriguing/startling as the first time I saw it. However, what really stood out this time was Alan Bates' performance. It really is his movie, from start to finish. Like Jackson's performance, it's more than a little bit brave; he's not entirely likeable but he's so gorgeous and complicated that you miss him every moment he's not on screen. I always thought he deserved a better film career (true, he did quite well on stage and TV) and rewatching his performance in "Women" makes me value his celluloid work even more.

A Brief --very brief-- Oscar Recap

The last thing anyone needs to read, especially a week after the fact, is yet another review of the Oscar telecast.

It’s been a crazy several days so I apologize for this belated post. Let’s keep it short and simple. Bravos to Hugh Jackman, producers Bill Condon and Laurence Mark, Sophia Loren, Eva Marie Saint, Kate Winslet, Sean Penn, Meryl Streep, Penelope Cruz, the family of Heath Ledger, "Milk" and "The Reader", Danny and Dev and Freida and the kids. And the real star of the evening: Dustin Lance Black.

There was a sense of glamour and celebration that’s been missing for several years. I got a little teary when Kate’s dad whistled and when Queen Latifah sang “I’ll Be Seeing You” for the memorial reel. And I'd like to think that the trophy for la Cruz was also, maybe just a little bit, in recognition for her brilliant turn in "Volver."


The musical number, courtesy of Baz Luhrmann, wasn’t any better –or any worse-- than any other misguided and time-wasting song & dance extravaganzas we’ve been watching for decades, but at least it gave us a few opportunities to wallow in the fleeting pleasures of our stunning host along with Beyonce and Zanessa. Poor Dominic Cooper and Amanda Seyfried should/could have stayed home.

Sure, I was hoping against hope that "Milk" would pull a big surprise for Best Picture, but the awards for screenplay and actor were certainly well deserved, and made for one of the most enjoyable Oscarcasts since "Chariots of Fire" grabbed the big prize. Now that was a night which all of us Alice Krige fans will never forget.

The final countdown

It’s all over but the shouting, and predictions are now flying at full throttle all over the place. Over at Awards Daily, where I have pretty much been camping out the past few weeks, we at last have Daniel Kenealy’s projections for the big night. Of all the Oscar pundits out there, he’s one of the best. Enjoy his musings by clicking here.

As for yours truly, this is my 41st Oscar telecast. My first was the year “In the Heat of the Night” took best picture away from my top choice “Dr Dolittle”….. I mean, I was ten years old at the time and very sensitive; what do you expect? That was the telecasr in which Angela Lansbury brought down the house with her rendition of the title song from “Thoroughly Modern Millie,” a film which featured my then top contender for supporting actress, Carol Channing. Again, I was ten. A Dolittle/Millie/Camelot sweep would have made me very happy back then.

This was also the watershed year in American film, and thus the Oscars, that is analyzed so brilliantly in Pictures at a Revolution, Mark Harris’ GREAT book, one of the very best movies tomes I have read in years.

Looking back, I think the Academy actually got it right in several categories: Actor (Rod Steiger) Supporting Actress (Estelle Parsons), and director (Mike Nichols). However, “Bonnie and Clyde” is easily the best movie of the year and diehard Hepburn fan that I remain, I think the actress prize that year should have gone to Faye Dunaway or Anne Bancroft. Supporting actor? George Kennedy is an ok choice, but Gene Hackman would have been an equally good choice. “Bonnie and Clyde” rightfully won cinematography but its losses in editing and screenplay are a pity. Editing and adapted screenplay went to “In the Heat of the Night” which wasn’t a terrible choice (and editing and s'play often go to the best pic winner), but original screenplay was awarded to William Rose for “Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner? At the time, perhaps this sappy soaper trying so hard to be a “message picture” could be taken a bit more seriously, but time has not been kind. Oh, I still love it for all the wrong reasons, but when the Academy history books tell us that it deserved the gold over “Bonnie” (and not to mention Frederic Raphael’s sharp and bittersweet “Two for the Road”), well, what can you do but add it to that really long list of bad choices?

But enough about ’67. Here are my final predictions for ’08. Some of them aren’t my favorites, but after pondering these nominations far too long, it’s time to move on. So here we go:

BEST PICTURE
"Slumdog Millionaire"
---it’s a runaway train at this point, but I certainly welcome a spoiler (i.e. my personal favorite, “Milk” but I just don’t see that happening.)

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
---Gus Van Sant is my worthy runner-up

BEST ACTOR
Sean Penn, "Milk"
----if Mickey Rourke wins, that’s fine by me. In fact, I would love to see a tie.

BEST ACTRESS
Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
---my top choice, altho’ I could live with a surprise victory by Leo, Streep, Hathaway or Jolie. It’s been a good year for this category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
---perhaps THE best performance of the year; and I'd argue this is a leading performance

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
----my favorites in this category –Lena Olin, Rosemarie DeWitt and Kathy Bates—weren’t nominated. But Cruz is terrific here, and so is Tomei, who’s my choice among the nominees.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Dustin Lance Black, "Milk"
---- if “In Bruges” happens to sneak in here, that would be kind of lovely, although I do believe Black deserves this award.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Simon Beaufoy, "Slumdog Millionaire"
---- not my choice at all. David Hare gets my vote. Or possibly Peter Morgan.



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
"The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button," Claudio Miranda
---- personally, I’d go with Wally Pfister for “The Dark Knight” or Roger Deakins for "Revolutionary Road." Oops. Wait. He wasn't nominated.



BEST FILM EDITING
"Slumdog Millionaire"

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
"Slumdog Millionaire," A.R. Rahman
---- my pick is Thomas Newman for “Revolutionary Road.” Oh wait… it wasn’t nominated.

BEST ART DIRECTION
"The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button"

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
"The Duchess"
----I really liked this film; am surprised it didn’t find a bigger audience audience.

BEST SOUND MIXING
"The Dark Knight"

BEST SOUND EDITING
"The Dark Knight"

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
"The Class" (France)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"Man on Wire"

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Wall-E”

BEST SONG
“JAI HO” from “Slumdog Millionaire”

update, 2/22: after yesterday's wonderfully entertaining Independent Spirit love fest, I'm beginning to wonder if Mickey Rourke might actually prevail. Golden Globe, BAFTA and now this trophy. Three great speeches. And Loki died. It's officially a nail-biter til the envelope is finally opened later tonight.

In Good Company

This Slumdog juggernaut continues to intrigue me. This evening it won the ACE “Eddie” award for Best Edited Feature: Drama (Wall-E and Man on Wire won for Comedy and Documentary, respectively.)

Glancing back at all the Pre Oscar awards this season, it’s interesting to look at the few trophies that this movie HASN’T won. This includes a few of the established critics groups that gave their Best Picture citations to something else (NY went for Milk, NSFC for Bashir, and LA and Chicago for Wall-E)

So, with nothing better to do this evening, I took a look at best-picture-only awards over the past thirty odd years, going back to 1975 when the LA Critics began announcing their choices. At that time the group joined five other organizations already making annual awards: NBR, NSFC, NYFCC, Globes, and BAFTA. Taking these six groups –and only these six — for a tally of Best Picture awards, we get some interesting statistics.

Slumdog Millionaire got the majority this year, 3 out of 6. Not bad. With three wins, it’s keeping company with some other fine films which ultimately won Best Picture, such as ROTK and American Beauty, as well as several that did not (Sideways, Saving Private Ryan, and All the President’s Men, to name a few).

Slumdog did not do as well as a few others that actually nabbed 4 out of 6:
Brokeback Mountain, LA Confidential, Goodfellas and Terms of Endearment (the latter being the only one which actually won the Best Picture Oscar)

So far only one film actually went 6 for 6: Schindler’s List.

For what it is worth, Crash, Braveheart and (surprisingly) The Departed did not win a single one of these precursors. Amazing how a few wins from DGA, SAG, WGA, and the guilds can suddenly beef up your pre Oscar status, don’t you think?

The following films won the majority of these six precursor awards for their year. In the years not listed, a handful of films nabbed two apiece. And on two occasions, 1978 and 1988, every group named a different best picture winner.




Here are those, then, that made an impressive show:

2008 Slumdog — 3
2005 Brokeback Mountain — 4
2004 Sideways — 3
2003 ROTK — 3
1999 American Beauty – 3
1998 Saving Private Ryan — 3
1997 LA Confidential — 4
1995 Sense & Sensibility — 3
1993 Schindler’s List — 6. Perfect score.
1990 Goodfellas 4
1986 Hannah and Her Sisters – 3
1983 Terms of Endearment — 4
1982 Gandhi — 3
1980 Ordinary People — 3
1979 Kramer vs Kramer — 3
1977 Annie Hall – 3
1976 All the President’s Men — 3

I did not include Producers Guild, BFCA or Chicago since they are relatively new to the game. But a quick glance shows that the top films remain tops: Schindler picks up another two from PGA and Chicago (BFCA wasn’t awarding in 1993) and still holds the record with 8 out a possible 8. And of course you see Crash getting its award from Chicago and The Departed picking up Chicago and BFCA.

With all three of these newer awards under its belt, No Country becomes a contender (now with 5 total) but most of the others continue to expand their leads. So if you only go back to 1995 (in which the perfect score now becomes a nine), it’s still looking impressive – but not a slamdunk – for Slumdog. Here are the top films, with at least a majority of four out of the possible nine:

2008 Slumdog — 5
2007 No Country for Old Men –5
2005 Brokeback Mountain — 6
2004 Sideways — 5
2003 ROTK — 6
2000 Gladiator — 4
1999 American Beauty – 6
1998 Saving Private Ryan — 6
1997 LA Confidential — 6
1995 Sense & Sensibility — 4

One final note, going all the way back to the mid 1940s when BAFTA and The Hollywood Foreign Press jumped into the game, joining the New York Critics and National Board of Review, “Braveheart” and “The Godfather Part 2” remain to this day the only Best Picture Oscar winners not to claim any of these other best pic award. Even “The Greatest Show on Earth” won a Golden Globe.

So, by most accounts, the big victors next Sunday night will be:

Slumdog Millionaire
Sean Penn, Milk
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Heath Ledger. The Dark Knight
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Dustin Lance Black, original screenplay, Milk
Simon Beaufoy, adapted screenplay, Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E, animated film

We’ll get to the technical and music awards later.

This is a quick post, just to say that I’m not totally sure of this proposed outcome; call me crazy, but I’m still pondering

(a) what looks to me like a continued head-to-head race between Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn coming down the final stretch;

(b) the possibility of Milk also losing screenplay to Wall-E; and

(c) potential upsets in Actress (Meryl Streep?) and Supporting Actress (Marissa Tomei).

I’ve given up on Milk taking a surprise Best Picture and am resigned to the anticipated Slumdog sweep. This year I must admit that surprises in three of the four acting fields wouldn’t be too unsettling; there’s lots of great work to be celebrated: Streep, Leo, Hathaway, Jenkins, Langella, Tomei. Of course, it would be even nicer to see Rosemarie DeWitt, James Franco, Leonardo DiCaprio, Sally Hawkins and Ralph Fiennes in the mix, but you can’t have everything.

As expected, the WGA screenplay awards went to Simon Beaufoy and Dustin Lance Black (“Slumdog” and “Milk” respectively) this past Saturday night. Both gentlemen remain frontrunners for the Oscar, which is no surprise. I remain supportive of the Slumdog slamdunk, although I will always believe there are a few other equally deserving movies of 2008. I would begin with the screenplay award and encourage voters to also consider a few other adaptations, beginning with "The Reader."

The following evening, a rather deadly BAFTA gala confirmed most of the Academy’s frontrunners. Really, will anyone even bother to tune in to the Oscars on Feb 22nd? That is, anyone other than me? Methinks this will be the worst year ever in regards to the ratings. After the Golden Globs and SAG extravanzas (as well as BFCA and BAFTA galas available for anyone willing to go to the trouble to find them on cable), how can this year's meat parade offer anything that most viewers have seen already?

Back to Sunday night's BAFTAcast, there were a few highlights, of course, to enliven the snoozefest:
---the endless cutaways to Kate Winslet and mum with Robert Downey Jr behind them, smacking his gum and looking bored out of his mind. Can you blame him?
---Mickey’s acceptance speech;
---Goldie Hawn presenting the Heath award; and
---Mick Jagger.
That’s it. Seen here in a taped delay on BBC America, the 2 ½ hours seemed endless, but compared to recent Oscarcasts, absolutely breezy.

The winners were predictable and, for the most part, I think we’re looking at this year’s Oscar honor roll (with possible alternatives to Actor and Original screenplay). I was most happy when The Duchess nabbed the costume award, and I hope it does likewise at the Oscars.

BEST PICTURE: Slumdog Millionaire
BEST DIRECTOR: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ACTRESS: Kate Winslet, The Reader
BEST ACTOR: Micky Rourke, The Wrestler
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
ANIMATED FILM: WALL•E
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE: I’ve Loved You So Long
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
COSTUMES: The Duchess
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Slumdog Millionaire
VISUAL EFFECTS: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
MAKEUP and HAIR: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SCORE: AR Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
SOUND: Slumdog Millionaire
EDITING: Slumdog Millionaire

The scribes get honored this evening when the WGA announces its 2008 awards. Look for Simon Beaufoy and Dustin Lance Black to take the honors for “Slumdog” (adaptation) and “Milk” (original) respectively. I’m also predicting them as front-runners for the writing Oscars. At this point, any other choices would be a bit of surprise. For the past couple of years, WGA and Oscar winners have gone hand in hand; I see no reason why this won't continue (unless, of course, "Wall-E" manages to grab the Oscar over "Milk" on February 22nd. We'll see.)

On the small screen front, where are several more awards, I’d say that “Mad Men” is a strong and worthy contender, although I wouldn’t be upset if my favorite underdog, “Friday Night Lights” stole the spotlight. Comedy-wise, I still admire “The Office” over “30 Rock” but I’d say the safe money is on Fey and friends.

Here's an interesting stroy from EW.com about Harvey Weinstein's campaign for "The Reader." Although I believe Winslet's win is almost guaranteed, a Best Picture victory would be an upset on the scale of "Crash" or "Chariots of Fire." Personally, I would be very happy to see "The Reader" or "Milk" stump "Slumdog" but I just don't see that happening. Anyway, it's at least something to ponder during this otherwise boring countdown to the Oscars.

WGA and BAFTA announce this weekend. More "Slumdog" victories are predicted (and it's hard to get too frustrated when Boyle, Beaufoy, Patel and company always appear so genuinely thrilled) However, let's hope that Dustin Lance Black earns his WGA for "Milk" and maybe also a surprise or two at the BAFTAs, just to keep things interesting.

Wrapping up my thoughts on the precursor awards, let’s turn to the BAFTAs which will be presented this Sunday evening (and telecast on BBCA America starting at 7 pm Central ) . These awards are always a bit unpredictable for me. The winners in the acting categories often go on to win an Oscar. But the best picture choices are sometimes quite different from the Academy’s and, more often than not are more, well, “British” in subject. For example last year BAFTA picked “Atonement” rather than “No Country for Old Men”. The year before it went for “The Queen” rather than “The Departed.”

BAFTAs five Best Picture nominees mirror the Oscar’s. I’d say that “Slumdog” has the strong lead based on its frontrunner popularity and its British roots. If there should be an upset, although that’s highly unlikely, I would bet on either “Frost / Nixon” or “The Reader.”

As far as the actors go, last year BAFTA went for Day-Lewis, Cotillard, Bardem and Swinton. The Oscars did the same. The year before that it was Whitaker, Mirren, Arkin and Hudson. Ditto the Oscars. (Given that Swinton and Arkin were not necessarily frontrunners, their BAFTA wins added, at least for me, a bit of suspense going into the Oscars that year.)

My predictions for Sunday night
“Slumdog Millionaire”
Danny Boyle
Sean Penn
Kate Winslet
Penelope Cruz
Heath Ledger
In Bruges (original screenplay)
The Reader (adapted screenplay…. I’m going out on a limb here. Simon Beaufoy probably has the lead, but if “Slumdog” takes picture and director, they may want to spread the wealth just a little).

Picking over the Precursors

Over the course of this awards season, “Slumdog Millionaire” has managed a rather remarkable sweep of Best Picture prizes. For starters, it has snagged the top award from the Directors Guild, the Producers Guild, The Broadcast Critics Association, Screen Actors Guild for Best Ensemble and the Golden Globe. Not bad. Only three other films have accomplished this, and they have all gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar: “American Beauty,” “LOTR: The Return of the King” and “Chicago.” In addition, “Beauty” and “King” also took the best picture award at BAFTA. If "Slumdog" wins the BAFTA honor later this week, it looks like a done deal. (Actually, I think its Oscar victory is foregone conclusion at this point).

This sweep of the precursors is not at 100%, however. All four of the above-mentioned films start to stumble when it comes to those other awards: The National Board of Review, The National Society of Film Critics, and the critics groups from New York, LA and Chicago.

Of this quintet, only the NBR went for “Slumdog.” New York crowned “Milk,” LA & Chicago chose “Wall-E” and the NSFC cited “Waltz with Bashir.” (Now, in all fairness, it should be pointed out that NSFC has only agreed with the Academy’s Best Picture choice four times –4, count ‘em 4-- since it started handing out awards back in ’66.)

The “American Beauty’” juggernaut was broken up by “Topsy-Turvy” which took top honors from NY and NSFC (the latter in a tie with “Being John Malkovich”). “Return of the King” was not loved by NBR which went for “Mystic River” nor NSFC and LA which opted for “American Splendor.”

To find the one-and-only film that appealed to all groups, you need to go back to 1993 when “Schindler’s List” took the top prize from all of these groups. (All but SAG and BFCA which had not yet begun doling out prizes). Now that’s what I really call a sweep. Before “Schindler,” we need to wind our way back to the mid 60s when “Tom Jones” and “A Man For All Seasons” pulled similar grand slams (but with fewer awards organizations).



So let’s take a minute or two and look back at these other groups and how from year to year, their selections align (or not) with those of the Academy.

For the few years, the Oscars stood alone. Then by the mid 1930s The New York Film Critics and The National Board of Review entered the game. These two new groups often agreed on a Best Picture choice that was different from the Academy’s, which isn’t all that surprising since both groups were free of the politics of Tinseltown, not to mention the power and tyranny of Louis B. Mayer and friends. They selected “The Grapes of Wrath” (1940) when AMPAS went for “Rebecca,” and the following year they agreed on “Citizen Kane” over “How Green Was My Valley” They also both had the good taste in ’42 to agree on “In Which Serve” as the year’s best movie, instead of the creaky “Mrs. Miniver.”

The Golden Globes entered the derby in 1943, followed by both the Directors Guild and BAFTA by the end of the decade. With six groups now handing out awards it would not be until 1957 when all reached a consensus on Best Picture: David Lean’s “The Bridge on the River Kwai.” Two years later “Ben Hur” came close but was denied its grand slam when the NBR opted for “The Nun’s Story.”

1963 saw the next across-the-board agreement with “Tom Jones.” “A Man for All Season” enjoyed a similar sweep a couple of years later..

NSFC announced their first Best Picture in 1966 (for “Blow Up,” introducing right from the start a selection of best pic choices that would run counter to the Academy’s choices. It went with “Persona” the following year, then “Shame,” and then “Z.” “MASH” would be the first American film to nab its top prize. )

The LA critics started posting in 1975 with a tie between “…Cuckoo’s Nest” and “Dog Day Afternoon.” Chicago started announcing in 1988 followed by the Producers Guild the following year.

By this point, it was becoming increasingly less likely for the ever-growing number of groups to agree on any year’s best picture. Looking back over the last 20 or so years, let’s review the breakdown. Not so surprisingly, more often than not the film that racked up the most precursor best film mentions became the Oscar victor as well. But there are, of course, some exceptions. These are the champs:

1989: Driving Miss Daisy, 4 out of 9 awards
1990: Goodfellas , 5 out of 9 (Oscar’s BP Dances with Wolves took 4)
1991: Silence of the Lambs, 5 out of 9
1992: Unforgiven, 3 out of 9
1993: Schindler’s List, 9 out 9
1994: Forrest Gump 3.5 out of 9

At this point SAG and PGA enter the picture, upping the total possible Best Picture wins to 11.

1995: (tie) Sense & Sensibility & Apollo 13, both with 4 out of 11 (Oscar’s BP Braveheart did not get a single vote from these groups)
1996: The English Patient, 4 out of 11
1997: LA Confidential, 6 out of 11 (Oscar’s BP Titanic took 3
1998: Saving Private Ryan 7 out of 11 (Oscar’s BP Shakespeare in Love took 3)
1999: American Beauty 8 out of 11
2000: Gladiator 3 out of 11
2001: (3-way tie) A Beautiful Mind, Mulholland Drive, and Moulin Rouge!, all with 3 out of 11
2002: Chicago, 5 out of 11
2003: LOTR: Return of the King, 8 out of 11
2004: Sideways, 6 out of 11 (Oscar’s BP Million Dollar Baby took 3)
2005: Brokeback Mountain, 7 out of 11 (Oscar’s BP Crash took 2)
2006: (tie) The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine, both with 3 out of 11
2007: No Country for Old Men, 7 out of 11

31 Days

I stumbled across “The Great Caruso” on TCM while having lunch today. Not a great movie, but how often can you see Mario Lanza canoodling with Ann Blyth while you’re knocking down a bowl chicken soup?

It’s part of the network’s fabulous annual 31 Days of Oscar. All the usual suspects in the TCM library --“2001” “Citizen Kane” “Lawrence of Arabia”-- are on the docket. But what makes this festival so enjoyable are some of the seldom seen chestnuts that they pull out of the vaults. To qualify, a film simply needs to have earned at least one Oscar nomination. This provides much-deserved airtime for several rather obscure chestnuts. But it also has it drawbacks. Do we really need to see “Yes, Giorgio” ever again?

Click here for the full schedule.

Hats off to Danny Boyle and his DGA victory. This latest accomplishment all but guarantees the big prizes on Oscar night. Slumdog may not be my favorite movie of the year, but Boyle's accomplishments are certainly worthy of the hullabaloo. Now that Nolan is (unfairly) out of the race, I'd say that Boyle has it in the proverbial bag.

If you're all caught up on your Oscar movies, this might be a good time to check out Shallow Grave, Boyle's excellent debut feature (which won him, among other kudos, the Best British Film of the Year prize from BAFTA). It's three principals are perfectly cast: Kerry Fox, Ewan McGregor and one of my favorite actors, Christopher Eccleston. And there's that terrific screenplay by John Hodge, who would go on to work with Boyle and McGregor on the brilliant Trainspotting a year or so later.

So, if you don't know this one, add it to your Neflix list. You won't be sorry. It might not have the drive of Trainspotting or Slumdog, but it's certainly better than The Beach.

The Aftermath

Biggest disappointments:

“The Dark Knight” and Christopher Nolan snubbed for Director/Picture. I feared this one. (See yesterday’s post)

“Revolutionary Road” snubbed for Actor (DiCaprio) and Cinematography (Roger Deakins)

Sally Hawkins and crew (Marsan, Leigh, et al) overlooked for “Happy Go Lucky”

Rosemarie DeWitt overlooked for “Rachel Getting Married”

Ralph Fiennes getting shut out completely, in spite of three great performances.

James Franco overlooked for "Milk" (I know, I know...this was a longshot, but between this AND "Pineapple Express" I was feeling a bit optimistic.)

“Frost / Nixon” still in the game with multiple major nominations. I still say the only award-worthy aspect of this film is Frank Langella’s terrific performance.


Nice surprises and validations:

“The Reader” for Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay AND cinematography

Richard Jenkins for “The Visitor.”

Michael Shannon for “Revolutionary Road”

Screenplay nomination for “In Bruges”

Not surprising at all, but I’m happy they’re very much still in the game:

Sean Penn
Gus Van Sant
Meryl Streep
Anne Hathaway
Penelope Cruz
Viola Davis
And of course, Heath Ledger

2008 Oscar Predictions or, Oh Sister James! I have such doubts!

So here we go. I give up. After weeks of resisting the common consensus, I’m ready join the swelling ranks of Oscar junkies and agree that the much-ballyhooed Big Five are pretty much a lock for both Best Picture and Best Director. I had hoped for some 11th hour inspiration to confidently suggest that tomorrow morning’s announcement would not be the very predictable line up of “…Button” “The Dark Knight” “Frost/Nixon” “Milk” and Slumdog Millionaire” along with their respective directors, Fincher, Nolan, Howard, Van Sant and Boyle. Yet, that appears to be the where everyone is going, with but a few diehard “Wall-E” fans still holding out for a miracle.

But can it really be that easy? Say it isn’t so. Where is this year’s “Atonement” or “United 93” just to keep us on our toes?

Now, for what it’s worth, I will admit to having a small, nagging feeling that “The Dark Knight” might just be shafted. I hope this isn’t the case, but if any of the top five take a tumble, I believe it will be this one. Like the other fantastic four, it has very strong support from all the guilds, except of course from SAG which denied it the ensemble nomination in favor of “Doubt.” More about “Doubt” in a minute. In addition, TDK was snubbed by the Globes and BAFTA. So, for the most part, was “Milk”… but there’s a difference. “Milk” represents an old AMPAS staple, that of the much-admired, well-reviewed biopic, the kind of movie they’ve been tossing Oscars at since George Arliss made “Disraeli.” On the other hand, to nominate TDK would be breaking new ground, God forbid, by welcoming into the fold what some/several voters may still want to dismiss as a comic book fantasia. I don’t buy that it will secure its nomination simply due to its box office. Yes, it’s impressive, but if that is the only reason it deserves a nomination, then I’d think that Shrek and Spiderman would be among recent contenders for the gold.

That’s why I suggest that “Doubt” might possibly be the dark horse. I’m probably wrong, but consider the fact that all four of its featured actors are shortlisted for nominations. To find a movie with at least four acting nominations but missing a bid for the Best Picture Oscar, you’ve got to go all the way back to 1966 and “Othello” and before that to prehistoric times with “My Man Godfrey.” Sister Meryl and her cohorts also have the SAG nod of approval as well as bounty of nominations from BAFTA, BFCA and the Globes. I’ll probably regret this scenario by tomorrow. And I’m still thinking/hoping that TDK pulls through. But of the five, it’s the one that has me just a little bit worried.

For me, I very much doubt that my own two favorites, which would be –big surprise—“The Reader” and “Revolutionary Road” are even in the game at this point. Third and fourth on my list would be “Milk” and “The Dark Knight” so I go into these final hours with a smattering of cautious optimism.

OK, enough of this babbling. What he hell do I know? Here goes:

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: Doubt

Best Director
David Fincher, … Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: Stephen Daldry

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Alternate: Brad Pitt

Sadly, I think Richard Jenkins is out of the race. I was ready to consider Eastwood a long shot until the recent surge of hoopla around his candidacy. No Globe, no SAG, no BAFTA nominations. BUT he did grab the National Board of Review award. And that actually has some weight.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristen Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Alternate: Angelina Jolie

Here’s where I’m probably going to get into a lot of trouble. Watch Hawkins and Thomas get trumped tomorrow by Angelina. Or Melissa Leo. Or Michelle Williams.

And may I just say one more time I how much I loved Cate Blanchett in “…Benjamin Button”?

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
James Franco, Milk
Alternate: Ralph Fiennes
I’m probably going out on a limb for Franco over Dev Patel, or Fiennes. Or Eddie Marsan, all of whom I liked very much. We’ll see.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Alt: Amy Adams

If there’s a “Button” sweep, then Taraji P. Henson will probably bump one of the above. Although neither stand a chance, I would love to see Tilda Swinton or Lena Olin on this list.

For screenplay, I’ll play it safe.

Original:
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Adapted:
…Button
Doubt
Frost / Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire



Until tomorrow......

Road to Ruin

While masses of moviegoers scurried off to see “Paul Blart: Mall Cop” this weekend, I was finally able to see “Revolutionary Road” which, at long last, made its way to San Antonio.

Having read Richard Yates’ marvelous novel last summer and then thinking about Frank and April Wheeler, its very troubled central characters, ever since, I was looking forward to the much-discussed and –given its release during Oscar season-- much-hyped film version. I wasn’t disappointed. It’s one of the best movies of the year. It has not proven to be a box-office bonanza and, sadly, may prove to be an also-ran in a year when “Slumdog Millionaire” is mopping up just about every critics list and will more than likely be the big Oscar champ. This is understandable. There is nothing uplifting or feel-goody about “Revolutionary Road.” Where’s the appeal in a domestic drama about a marriage in crisis, circa 1955, that exposes the emptiness and broken promises of the postwar American Dream? I agree with others who believe this movie will easily trump the test of time and be discovered (and rediscovered) and appreciated anew for years to come.

Winslet is even better than I had anticipated. April is almost an impossible role; it’s one of the novel’s greatest achievements that Yates keeps this desperate, maddening and sometimes ridiculous woman so sympathetic and believable. The fact that Winslet conveys –so skillfully, almost effortlessly—these same contradictions in a year when she has already delivered the year’s best performance in “The Reader” is a true testament to her remarkable talent as an actor.

I have always like DiCaprio but have to admit I found him lacking as a leading man. To me, there was a boyishness about him that, though appealing, sometimes undercut the gravity and maturity required of certain roles. For example, what worked well for “Gangs of New York” was all wrong for “The Aviator.” Not until “The Departed” (his best work to date, in my opinion) could I appreciate any real maturity of character. So I was hesitant to accept him as Frank and as much as I could see Winslet as April, believed that casting Leo was a rather crass and obvious pandering to the “Titanic” fanatics who might make this move another worldwide wonder. I could see Matt Damon or Aaron Eckhart in the role and perhaps Gwyneth Paltrow as another April possibility (and while reading the book last summer, I kept picturing Jon Hamm and especially January Jones….gee, I wonder where that came from?) This turns out to be one of DiCaprio’s finest hours. There is something especially good about his choices in two scenes with Winslet, and a third with Kazan. The reckless disregard and casual contempt with which he dismisses both wife and mistress is perfectly played. In these three brief passages he is able to convey Frank’s rottenness which lurks at the core of his despair.

This is the best acted American film of 2008. Period. End of discussion. You will not find a better ensemble anywhere. It’s only Sam Mendes’ fourth feature film but it has been assembled with a grace and confidence of a master. Given his success as a theater director it is no surprise that the performances here, as in his previous three films, are superb. A two-hour version of a rather epic novel dictates the cutting down of or total elimination of characters, which is always a shame but the necessary evil of adapting a book for the silver screen. Shep, Milly, Helen, John, Mona and Jack are all rich and complex characters, adding much (much) more to the novel than allowed in their brief screen cameos. However, think for a moment how incredibly rich each of these characters manage to be in their fleeting moments. Credit, respectively, David Harbour, Kathryn Hahn, Kathy Bates, Michael Shannon, Zoe Kazan and Dylan Baker for bringing such clarity and nuance not only to their performances but the film’s rich tapestry. Bates and Shannon are getting some –but not nearly enough—Oscar buzz for their work. Shannon has the showier, more sympathetic part but just take a moment and watch what Bates can do with something as simple as the early scene with Winslet, drinking coffee at the breakfast table. No hysterics, no melodrama, nothing flashy at all: just a reaction to an unexpected gesture of kindness. It’s a great moment. (If Hahn and especially Harbour had about five more minutes of screen time, they would be, without a doubt, deserving some serious supporting Oscar chatter, as well)

In a year when “Benjamin Button,” “The Dark Knight” and “Slumdog…” seem to dominate, understandably, all discussions and award banquets when it comes to technical achievement, it should be noted that “Revolutionary Road” has a sweep all its own. Without a lot of technical wizardry, it is still a marvel of design and composition.
While everyone is slobbering over Thomas Newman’s score for Wall-E, might I suggest that his work here (as in all previous collaborations with Mendes) is superior? And if this isn’t Roger Deakins Oscar year, especially with this achievement right on the heels of “No Country For Old Men” AND “…Jesse James…”, then I don’t know what is. What he can do with light and shadow is sometimes just short of miraculous.

On Thursday morning, we’ll all know who’s up for the little golden man, and who isn’t. Although I think it’s one of the top five movies of the year, and would also cite Mendes, Winslet, DiCaprio, Bates, Shannon, Deakens and Newman as deserving contenders , I’m doubtful that is going to happen. Winslet is a given. DiCaprio has a good chance but he’s fighting some other strong challengers (Jenkins, Pitt, Eastwood) all jostling for the final two slots following the Penn-Rourke-Langella trinity. And Deakins looks pretty strong, given his other fine work this year on “The Reader” and “Doubt” plus a nomination from the ASC. Still, this is a year of great-looking movies. When you think about Chris Menges, Wally Pfister, Claudio Miranda and especially Harris Savides, it’s impossible to pick “the best.” Isn’t it?

Worth the wait in gold?

Say what you like about the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. But they at least knew how to put on a good show last night . And it just might trump the Oscars. By the time AMPAS gets around to the grand finale next month, we may be well over this awards season, given how predictable things continue to be.

Last night’s telecast is getting good buzz from just about everywhere you look, and rightly so. There were surprises and just enough sentimental moments to make things more than a little compelling. In addition to Kate Winslet’s double whammy, Christopher Nolan’s tribute to Heath, and the showstopping response to Mickey Rourke’s win, we also had some memorable moments courtesy of Emma Thompson and Sandra Bullock, as well as Drew Barrymore’s most impressive Ann-Margret-inspired retro coif (altho’ what, pray tell, was up with her ardent Sapphic canoodling with the always glorious and "Grey Gardens" costar Jessica Lange? Is ).

I like “Slumdog Millionaire” very much. But I don’t love it. Still, only a real grouch could not be taken by how happy its seep made Dev Patel and Freida Pinto (both of them equally adorable) and director Danny Boyle who, if you ask me, is the frontrunner for the Best Director Oscar at this point. I’m a longtime fan. Has anyone seen (or does anyone remember) “Shallow Grave” ?

Despite decades worth of scorn and criticism heaped upon the HFPA’s Golden Globes --and, let’s face it, any group that would give Best Picture to “Scent of a Woman” or nominated for major acting awards Helen Hayes in "Herbie Rides Again" and Neil Diamond in “The Jazz Singer” is only asking for ridicule. To decide whether or not this little group of journalists has any real clout, just look at the volume of follow-up all over the web today, and start looking for huge “Golden Globe winner!!” attached to ads for Slumdog, The Wrestler, etc.

For me, the one thing that I like about the Globes is that they often give a final but very public tribute to certain actors that, from here on out, won’t be picking up any more steam. In some cases, an Oscar nomination, sure. But probably not any more major awards. This year, I think we can say this about both winners for Actor and Actress in a comedy/musical. Sally Hawkins and Colin Farrell were both very deserving.

I’d even say that Hawkins is still in the Oscar race. Forget winning the damn thing, but I like to believe she still has a shot at the final five. True, the SAG snub doesn’t help and last night’s victory may have been a little too late to influence Academy voters, most of whom have already submitted their nomination ballots. Still, she has that impressive tally of wins from various critics groups, and I believe last night’s GG victory puts her ahead – by one trophy – of Anne Hathaway in this season’s race. Even if they are tied at this point, that’s a pretty impressive haul for our Sally.

Also, 15 past winners of the Globes’ Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical went on to win the Oscar (one of them, Maggie Smith for “California Suite” would win her Oscar in the supporting category), which isn’t such a bad statistic. Also a Globe in this category is also a nice consolation prize; it has recognized some pretty great work including Rosalind Russell for “Auntie Mame,” Marilyn Monroe for “Some Like it Hot” Anne Bancroft for “The Graduate” and Julie Andrews for “Victor, Victoria”. OK, that last sentence sounded hopelessly gay. So be it. They were are all divine.

(Interesting bit of trivia: the only Best Actress Oscar winner whose performance was not nominated for a Golden Globe was Sophia Loren in “Two Women.”)

As for Best Actor in a Comedy or a Musical, the odds are not very favorable. Only five GG winners in this category went on to victory at Oscar night: Rex Harrison, Lee Marvin, Richard Dreyfuss, Jack Nicholson, and Jamie Foxx. George Burns tied with Walter Matthau for his role in “The Sunshine Boys” and, like Dame Maggie, would win his Oscar in the supporting category.

With his victory last night, Colin Farrell joins such illustrious past winners as Danny Kaye (“On the Riviera”), Glenn Ford (“Pocketful of Miracles”) Cantinflas for “Around the World in 80 Days” (he beat Yul Brynner for “The King and I”), Richard Harris for “Camelot” (he beat Dustin Hoffman for “The Graduate”) as well as my personal favorite, Alberto Sordi for “To Bed or Not To Bed”.

In fairness, it should be pointed out that many excellent Oscar-worthy performances were cited by the Globes in this category, including wins for Donald O’Connor in “Singin’ in the Rain” and James Mason in “A Star is Born,” just for starters.

I’ve been a big Farrell fan for years: “Tigerland,” “Minority Report” “A Home at the End of the World” and especially “The New World.” I don’t even mind admitting that liked him in “Alexander.” In spite of the bad-boy press and a particular home video which showcased another of his rather large talents, he’s done some good work. He’s always fun and even a little unpredictable. Remember “Phone Booth”?

As for “In Bruges,” it would be great to see Farrell in the Oscar race but I can’t even begin to consider that this year. I’m almost certain it’s a Langella, Rourke, Penn lock, with DiCaprio, Pitt, Eastwood, Jenkins vying for the other two slots.

The SAG awards should help us settle all bets.

Finally, as regards the other side of the barn yard, ie the TV awards, hooray for the much-deserving “John Adams” and “30 Rock”. And, of course, the best drama on TV, which would be “Mad Men.” Pity that Jon Hamm and January Jones were denied their awards. Gabriel Byrne and Anna Paquin are worthy contenders but not nearly as good as Mr and Mrs Draper.

A “Slumdog” sweep? Not likely, if you ask me. But then again, what do I know? I have given up trying to predict the Golden Globes. This year it is especially nerve-wracking given the Kate conundrum: will she clinch the supporting trophy for “The Reader” (which I still maintain is a leading performance….and the best of the year) and thus snatch the prize from the fabulous Penelope Cruz in what is truly a supporting turn? Or will Kate grab the glory in the leading actress race for “Revolutionary Road” (which those of us in the hinterlands have yet to see) and trump what many are predicting as a showdown between Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway? Will, Meryl, as perhaps a consolation prize, win instead in the musical/comedy category, when many of us agree that no matter how much we love Mamma Meryl, this should be Sally Hawkins’ prize?

Oh, it’s all too confusing. And a little bit maddening. The best consideration of who might win tonight can be be found here at AwardsDaily, courtesy of Daniel Kenealy. As always, there’s plenty of good reporting and chatter here, the very best go-to awards website, hosted with customary vigor and good humor by Sasha Stone. For what it's worth, I do believe that Best Picture/Drama will more than likely go to Benjamin Button or even The Reader and that Slumdog will take a much deserved Best Director for Danny Boyle. Let's just wait and see.

I do think it’s curious that The Dark Knight and Milk didn’t make it into the Drama category. And ditto directors Nolan and Van Sant. But then again, that’s what is so predictable about the Globes: their unpredictability.

So, rather than making any predictions this year, I’m simply going with my favorites among the nominees. If I were a member of the Hollywood Foreign Press, here’s how I would vote. Believe me, I don’t think this resembles tonight’s final outcome. Think of it more as my own appreciation of a few movies and performances that I really enjoyed.

PICTURE, DRAMA, The Reader
PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY, In Bruges
DIRECTOR, Danny Boyle
ACTOR, DRAMA, Sean Penn
ACTRESS, DRAMA, Meryl Streep (r/u: Cate Blanchett on a write-in ballot, far and away the best thing about the over-hyped Benjamin Button)
ACTOR, MUSICAL OR COMEDY, Colin Farrell or James Franco.
ACTRESS, MUSICAL OR COMEDY, Sally Hawkins
SUPPORTING ACTOR, Heath Ledger
SUPPORTING ACTRESS, Kate Winslet (should be lead, in my opinion. r/u: Penelope Cruz)
SCREENPLAY, The Reader
SCORE, Slumdog
SONG, The Wrestler

Yesterday the DGA announced its hotly anticipated roster of the year’s Best Director nominations. And said announcement was followed by a thud of silence. Actually, the only ones making any noise were those disappointed in how predictable it all is.

True, it’s been a long time since the list was as foreseeable as this one. In fact, it heralds the same five contenders that the PGA announced just last week. It’s not that these films aren’t worthy --for the most part, they most certainly are (except for Frost/Nixon, but more about that later) –it’s just that there have been no real out-of-the-blue surprises to satisfy the pundits, bloggers and awards junkies like yours truly who spend way too much time mulling and debating over the road to this year’s Oscar orgy.

So, ladies and gentlemen, here are, more than likely, your five nominations for this year’s Academy Award for Best Picture:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

The directors of these films (David Fincher, Christopher Nolan, Ron Howard, Gus Van Sant, and Danny Boyle, respectively) are the Chosen Five for this year’s DGA top honor, and they enter this race with various levels of early season support:

----Boyle has pretty much swept the critics’ prizes with 15 to date, including the higher profiled Chicago and LA groups as well as last night’s BFCA. Van Sant has 2, with Nolan, Howard and Fincher each nabbing one a piece.

---All five films received WGA nominations earlier this week.

---All five films were up for BFCA best picture and best director. Slumdog won both awards.

---All five films made the BAFTA long list.

---As mentioned before, all five films are the finalists for the PGA award.

---Four of the five nabbed SAG’s closest thing to a Best Pic nomination (Outstanding Performance by a Cast). The Dark Knight lost its slot to Doubt.

---Three of five are up for the Golden Globes’ best director and best picture. Nolan and Van Sant are the shut-outs here, with their slots going to Stephen Daldry/The Reader and Sam Mendes/Revolutionary Road.

---The Dark Knight made a gazillion dollars more than the other four movies combined.

With all of this hullabaloo, it still comes back to the DGA. As we all know, this is the most reliable forecaster of things to come: most of DGA nominees move on to an Oscar nomination for Best Director and most of their films, likewise, grab a Best Picture nom.
In addition, the winners, more often than not, follow the same path.

And so it goes. Of course, there is the occasional lapse such as in 2005, the Year of Shame and Infamy: Ang Lee won the DGA, then won the Oscar for Best Director. His movie (Brokeback Mountain) lost to Crash. And then there was the time Spielberg clinched both Best Director spots for Saving Private Ryan, only to see it lose the big prize to Shakespeare in Love. Groan.

And so, where might the surprises be lurking this year? Some circles are insisting that Wall-E will unseat one of these five for a Best Picture nomination. I don’t think this is likely, especially when it has its own category (animated) which it will no doubt clinch. I would wager that The Wrestler and Revolutionary Road are waiting in the wings. I am about to give up hope for two of my own favorites, Happy-Go-Lucky and especially The Reader.

Of these five, I would suggest that The Dark Knight and Milk are the most vulnerable as they lack SAG and Golden Globe support. Nominations, perhaps. Ultimate victory, not so sure at this point.

And although Slumdog Millionaire continues to steamroll its way through the various critics awards, and has done very well with guild nominations, don’t yet bet that it’s a lock for Best Picture. As of today, I’d safely wager that Boyle is the strongest (and perhaps most deserving) contender for Best Director, but I’m saying it’s still a toss up as to what wins the big prize.

As for my own best of the year picks, it’s not yet based on an all-inclusive review. Neither The Wrestler nor Revolutionary Road have made it to San Antonio. And Gran Torino started today. Hoping to catch that and Rachel Getting Married this weekend. So, the list will be updated and revised but, as of now, it would go something like this:

My top five films of 2008 (as of today)
The Reader
Milk
The Dark Knight
Happy Go Lucky
In Bruges

Favorite performances (and it's been a good year, with great work in often less than great films):

Kate Winslet, The Reader
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Cate Blanchett, Benjamin Button
Meryl Streep, Doubt (and Mamma Mia. Go ahead, shoot me. Loved her.)
Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky
Eddie Marsan, Happy Go Lucky
Viola Davis, Doubt
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Hiam Abbass, The Visitor
Rebecca Hall, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Colin Farrell, In Bruges
Ralph Fiennes, In Bruges, The Duchess and The Reader
Sean Penn, Milk
Tilda Swinton, Benjamin Button
James Franco, Milk and especially Pineapple Express
Lena Olin, The Reader
David Kross, The Reader
Russell Brand, Forgetting Sarah Marshall

Sweet Dreams

The last time I saw Cocteau's "The Blood of a Poet" was during my Freshman year in college. That was a long time ago. I rediscovered it this week as a result of another movie (it often happens that way). I had been putting off watching "Les Enfants Terribles" because doing so signaled the near completion of my recent crash course on Jean-Pierre Melville. Right now, while pondering the best movies of 2008, nothing comes close to the pleasure and excitement afforded by "Le Samourai" and "Army of Shadows" and "Bob le Flambeur", all of which I saw for the first time this past year. And all of which I am already to see again. "Enfants" was a surprise to me, too, but in a different sort of way. Luckily the DVD extras, courtesy of Criterion, addressed what surprised and challenged me the most: the true authorship, or auteurship I suppose I should say. Melville or Cocteau? Kind of a lovely mishmash of both I think...a young Melville making a movie of the older (and more famous) Cocteau's popular book, with the author himself very much present on the set. In this, only his second film, Melville had not yet developed the unique stylistic signature that identifies his later work but there are certainly hints of it throughout. It's blunt and not very tasteful. There's a ragged and unrehearsed energy to it, propelled by a lot of Bach, which balances the extremes of Cocteau's fantasia. The whole thing rolls out like a feverish dream. It's a startling, engrossing little movie with some bizarre casting choices that only enhance its hypnotic weirdness. The title characters, a nasty and vaguely incestuous teenage brother and sister, are played by Nicole Stephane and Edouard Dermithe. The fact that they were both in their mid 20s when they made the film --and certainly look it -- is challenging at first. He looks especially silly in his schoolboy shorts and cape. But early on, you sort of conveniently forget the age issue and focus instead on Stephane's mesmerizing performance as a butch little man eater. Dermithe is a terrible actor and wasn't Melville's choice, but he's certainly a looker (apparently one of Cocteau's, ahem, protegees) and by the time brother and sis hop in the tub together, it makes perfect sense.

I followed "Enfants" a few nights later with "Poet" At only 50-odd minutes, Cocteau's loopy 1930 meditation on art and dreams, life and death, love and longing, is every bit as engrossing and entertaining as it was almost 80 years ago when he and Bunuel were happily provoking audiences and challenging the very definition of cinema. I had forgotten just about all of this movie, including a snowball fight among school boys which would show up again in "Enfants," and it was a treat to see it again, as if for the first time. Also enjoyable is Edgardo Cozarinsky's documentary on Cocteau, which is included on the Criterion disc. It explains a lot. Next up, what else? Orpheus. Stay tuned.