Thursday, February 5, 2009


Wrapping up my thoughts on the precursor awards, let’s turn to the BAFTAs which will be presented this Sunday evening (and telecast on BBCA America starting at 7 pm Central ) . These awards are always a bit unpredictable for me. The winners in the acting categories often go on to win an Oscar. But the best picture choices are sometimes quite different from the Academy’s and, more often than not are more, well, “British” in subject. For example last year BAFTA picked “Atonement” rather than “No Country for Old Men”. The year before it went for “The Queen” rather than “The Departed.”

BAFTAs five Best Picture nominees mirror the Oscar’s. I’d say that “Slumdog” has the strong lead based on its frontrunner popularity and its British roots. If there should be an upset, although that’s highly unlikely, I would bet on either “Frost / Nixon” or “The Reader.”

As far as the actors go, last year BAFTA went for Day-Lewis, Cotillard, Bardem and Swinton. The Oscars did the same. The year before that it was Whitaker, Mirren, Arkin and Hudson. Ditto the Oscars. (Given that Swinton and Arkin were not necessarily frontrunners, their BAFTA wins added, at least for me, a bit of suspense going into the Oscars that year.)

My predictions for Sunday night
“Slumdog Millionaire”
Danny Boyle
Sean Penn
Kate Winslet
Penelope Cruz
Heath Ledger
In Bruges (original screenplay)
The Reader (adapted screenplay…. I’m going out on a limb here. Simon Beaufoy probably has the lead, but if “Slumdog” takes picture and director, they may want to spread the wealth just a little).

No comments: