The final countdown

It’s all over but the shouting, and predictions are now flying at full throttle all over the place. Over at Awards Daily, where I have pretty much been camping out the past few weeks, we at last have Daniel Kenealy’s projections for the big night. Of all the Oscar pundits out there, he’s one of the best. Enjoy his musings by clicking here.

As for yours truly, this is my 41st Oscar telecast. My first was the year “In the Heat of the Night” took best picture away from my top choice “Dr Dolittle”….. I mean, I was ten years old at the time and very sensitive; what do you expect? That was the telecasr in which Angela Lansbury brought down the house with her rendition of the title song from “Thoroughly Modern Millie,” a film which featured my then top contender for supporting actress, Carol Channing. Again, I was ten. A Dolittle/Millie/Camelot sweep would have made me very happy back then.

This was also the watershed year in American film, and thus the Oscars, that is analyzed so brilliantly in Pictures at a Revolution, Mark Harris’ GREAT book, one of the very best movies tomes I have read in years.

Looking back, I think the Academy actually got it right in several categories: Actor (Rod Steiger) Supporting Actress (Estelle Parsons), and director (Mike Nichols). However, “Bonnie and Clyde” is easily the best movie of the year and diehard Hepburn fan that I remain, I think the actress prize that year should have gone to Faye Dunaway or Anne Bancroft. Supporting actor? George Kennedy is an ok choice, but Gene Hackman would have been an equally good choice. “Bonnie and Clyde” rightfully won cinematography but its losses in editing and screenplay are a pity. Editing and adapted screenplay went to “In the Heat of the Night” which wasn’t a terrible choice (and editing and s'play often go to the best pic winner), but original screenplay was awarded to William Rose for “Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner? At the time, perhaps this sappy soaper trying so hard to be a “message picture” could be taken a bit more seriously, but time has not been kind. Oh, I still love it for all the wrong reasons, but when the Academy history books tell us that it deserved the gold over “Bonnie” (and not to mention Frederic Raphael’s sharp and bittersweet “Two for the Road”), well, what can you do but add it to that really long list of bad choices?

But enough about ’67. Here are my final predictions for ’08. Some of them aren’t my favorites, but after pondering these nominations far too long, it’s time to move on. So here we go:

BEST PICTURE
"Slumdog Millionaire"
---it’s a runaway train at this point, but I certainly welcome a spoiler (i.e. my personal favorite, “Milk” but I just don’t see that happening.)

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
---Gus Van Sant is my worthy runner-up

BEST ACTOR
Sean Penn, "Milk"
----if Mickey Rourke wins, that’s fine by me. In fact, I would love to see a tie.

BEST ACTRESS
Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
---my top choice, altho’ I could live with a surprise victory by Leo, Streep, Hathaway or Jolie. It’s been a good year for this category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
---perhaps THE best performance of the year; and I'd argue this is a leading performance

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
----my favorites in this category –Lena Olin, Rosemarie DeWitt and Kathy Bates—weren’t nominated. But Cruz is terrific here, and so is Tomei, who’s my choice among the nominees.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Dustin Lance Black, "Milk"
---- if “In Bruges” happens to sneak in here, that would be kind of lovely, although I do believe Black deserves this award.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Simon Beaufoy, "Slumdog Millionaire"
---- not my choice at all. David Hare gets my vote. Or possibly Peter Morgan.



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
"The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button," Claudio Miranda
---- personally, I’d go with Wally Pfister for “The Dark Knight” or Roger Deakins for "Revolutionary Road." Oops. Wait. He wasn't nominated.



BEST FILM EDITING
"Slumdog Millionaire"

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
"Slumdog Millionaire," A.R. Rahman
---- my pick is Thomas Newman for “Revolutionary Road.” Oh wait… it wasn’t nominated.

BEST ART DIRECTION
"The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button"

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
"The Duchess"
----I really liked this film; am surprised it didn’t find a bigger audience audience.

BEST SOUND MIXING
"The Dark Knight"

BEST SOUND EDITING
"The Dark Knight"

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
"The Class" (France)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"Man on Wire"

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Wall-E”

BEST SONG
“JAI HO” from “Slumdog Millionaire”

update, 2/22: after yesterday's wonderfully entertaining Independent Spirit love fest, I'm beginning to wonder if Mickey Rourke might actually prevail. Golden Globe, BAFTA and now this trophy. Three great speeches. And Loki died. It's officially a nail-biter til the envelope is finally opened later tonight.