Yesterday the DGA announced its hotly anticipated roster of the year’s Best Director nominations. And said announcement was followed by a thud of silence. Actually, the only ones making any noise were those disappointed in how predictable it all is.True, it’s been a long time since the list was as foreseeable as this one. In fact, it heralds the same five contenders that the PGA announced just last week. It’s not that these films aren’t worthy --for the most part, they most certainly are (except for Frost/Nixon, but more about that later) –it’s just that there have been no real out-of-the-blue surprises to satisfy the pundits, bloggers and awards junkies like yours truly who spend way too much time mulling and debating over the road to this year’s Oscar orgy.
So, ladies and gentlemen, here are, more than likely, your five nominations for this year’s Academy Award for Best Picture:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
The directors of these films (David Fincher, Christopher Nolan, Ron Howard, Gus Van Sant, and Danny Boyle, respectively) are the Chosen Five for this year’s DGA top honor, and they enter this race with various levels of early season support:
----Boyle has pretty much swept the critics’ prizes with 15 to date, including the higher profiled Chicago and LA groups as well as last night’s BFCA. Van Sant has 2, with Nolan, Howard and Fincher each nabbing one a piece.
---All five films received WGA nominations earlier this week.
---All five films were up for BFCA best picture and best director. Slumdog won both awards.
---All five films made the BAFTA long list.
---As mentioned before, all five films are the finalists for the PGA award.
---Four of the five nabbed SAG’s closest thing to a Best Pic nomination (Outstanding Performance by a Cast). The Dark Knight lost its slot to Doubt.
---Three of five are up for the Golden Globes’ best director and best picture. Nolan and Van Sant are the shut-outs here, with their slots going to Stephen Daldry/The Reader and Sam Mendes/Revolutionary Road.
---The Dark Knight made a gazillion dollars more than the other four movies combined.
With all of this hullabaloo, it still comes back to the DGA. As we all know, this is the most reliable forecaster of things to come: most of DGA nominees move on to an Oscar nomination for Best Director and most of their films, likewise, grab a Best Picture nom.
In addition, the winners, more often than not, follow the same path.
And so it goes. Of course, there is the occasional lapse such as in 2005, the Year of Shame and Infamy: Ang Lee won the DGA, then won the Oscar for Best Director. His movie (Brokeback Mountain) lost to Crash. And then there was the time Spielberg clinched both Best Director spots for Saving Private Ryan, only to see it lose the big prize to Shakespeare in Love. Groan.And so, where might the surprises be lurking this year? Some circles are insisting that Wall-E will unseat one of these five for a Best Picture nomination. I don’t think this is likely, especially when it has its own category (animated) which it will no doubt clinch. I would wager that The Wrestler and Revolutionary Road are waiting in the wings. I am about to give up hope for two of my own favorites, Happy-Go-Lucky and especially The Reader.
Of these five, I would suggest that The Dark Knight and Milk are the most vulnerable as they lack SAG and Golden Globe support. Nominations, perhaps. Ultimate victory, not so sure at this point.
And although Slumdog Millionaire continues to steamroll its way through the various critics awards, and has done very well with guild nominations, don’t yet bet that it’s a lock for Best Picture. As of today, I’d safely wager that Boyle is the strongest (and perhaps most deserving) contender for Best Director, but I’m saying it’s still a toss up as to what wins the big prize.
As for my own best of the year picks, it’s not yet based on an all-inclusive review. Neither The Wrestler nor Revolutionary Road have made it to San Antonio. And Gran Torino started today. Hoping to catch that and Rachel Getting Married this weekend. So, the list will be updated and revised but, as of now, it would go something like this:
My top five films of 2008 (as of today)
The Reader
Milk
The Dark Knight
Happy Go Lucky
In Bruges
Favorite performances (and it's been a good year, with great work in often less than great films):
The Reader
Milk
The Dark Knight
Happy Go Lucky
In Bruges
Favorite performances (and it's been a good year, with great work in often less than great films):
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Cate Blanchett, Benjamin Button
Meryl Streep, Doubt (and Mamma Mia. Go ahead, shoot me. Loved her.)
Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky
Eddie Marsan, Happy Go Lucky
Viola Davis, Doubt
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Hiam Abbass, The Visitor
Rebecca Hall, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Colin Farrell, In Bruges
Ralph Fiennes, In Bruges, The Duchess and The Reader
Sean Penn, Milk
Tilda Swinton, Benjamin Button
James Franco, Milk and especially Pineapple Express
Lena Olin, The Reader
David Kross, The Reader
Russell Brand, Forgetting Sarah Marshall
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Cate Blanchett, Benjamin Button
Meryl Streep, Doubt (and Mamma Mia. Go ahead, shoot me. Loved her.)
Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky
Eddie Marsan, Happy Go Lucky
Viola Davis, Doubt
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Hiam Abbass, The Visitor
Rebecca Hall, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Colin Farrell, In Bruges
Ralph Fiennes, In Bruges, The Duchess and The Reader
Sean Penn, Milk
Tilda Swinton, Benjamin Button
James Franco, Milk and especially Pineapple Express
Lena Olin, The Reader
David Kross, The Reader
Russell Brand, Forgetting Sarah Marshall
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