2008 Oscar Predictions or, Oh Sister James! I have such doubts!

So here we go. I give up. After weeks of resisting the common consensus, I’m ready join the swelling ranks of Oscar junkies and agree that the much-ballyhooed Big Five are pretty much a lock for both Best Picture and Best Director. I had hoped for some 11th hour inspiration to confidently suggest that tomorrow morning’s announcement would not be the very predictable line up of “…Button” “The Dark Knight” “Frost/Nixon” “Milk” and Slumdog Millionaire” along with their respective directors, Fincher, Nolan, Howard, Van Sant and Boyle. Yet, that appears to be the where everyone is going, with but a few diehard “Wall-E” fans still holding out for a miracle.

But can it really be that easy? Say it isn’t so. Where is this year’s “Atonement” or “United 93” just to keep us on our toes?

Now, for what it’s worth, I will admit to having a small, nagging feeling that “The Dark Knight” might just be shafted. I hope this isn’t the case, but if any of the top five take a tumble, I believe it will be this one. Like the other fantastic four, it has very strong support from all the guilds, except of course from SAG which denied it the ensemble nomination in favor of “Doubt.” More about “Doubt” in a minute. In addition, TDK was snubbed by the Globes and BAFTA. So, for the most part, was “Milk”… but there’s a difference. “Milk” represents an old AMPAS staple, that of the much-admired, well-reviewed biopic, the kind of movie they’ve been tossing Oscars at since George Arliss made “Disraeli.” On the other hand, to nominate TDK would be breaking new ground, God forbid, by welcoming into the fold what some/several voters may still want to dismiss as a comic book fantasia. I don’t buy that it will secure its nomination simply due to its box office. Yes, it’s impressive, but if that is the only reason it deserves a nomination, then I’d think that Shrek and Spiderman would be among recent contenders for the gold.

That’s why I suggest that “Doubt” might possibly be the dark horse. I’m probably wrong, but consider the fact that all four of its featured actors are shortlisted for nominations. To find a movie with at least four acting nominations but missing a bid for the Best Picture Oscar, you’ve got to go all the way back to 1966 and “Othello” and before that to prehistoric times with “My Man Godfrey.” Sister Meryl and her cohorts also have the SAG nod of approval as well as bounty of nominations from BAFTA, BFCA and the Globes. I’ll probably regret this scenario by tomorrow. And I’m still thinking/hoping that TDK pulls through. But of the five, it’s the one that has me just a little bit worried.

For me, I very much doubt that my own two favorites, which would be –big surprise—“The Reader” and “Revolutionary Road” are even in the game at this point. Third and fourth on my list would be “Milk” and “The Dark Knight” so I go into these final hours with a smattering of cautious optimism.

OK, enough of this babbling. What he hell do I know? Here goes:

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: Doubt

Best Director
David Fincher, … Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: Stephen Daldry

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Alternate: Brad Pitt

Sadly, I think Richard Jenkins is out of the race. I was ready to consider Eastwood a long shot until the recent surge of hoopla around his candidacy. No Globe, no SAG, no BAFTA nominations. BUT he did grab the National Board of Review award. And that actually has some weight.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristen Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Alternate: Angelina Jolie

Here’s where I’m probably going to get into a lot of trouble. Watch Hawkins and Thomas get trumped tomorrow by Angelina. Or Melissa Leo. Or Michelle Williams.

And may I just say one more time I how much I loved Cate Blanchett in “…Benjamin Button”?

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
James Franco, Milk
Alternate: Ralph Fiennes
I’m probably going out on a limb for Franco over Dev Patel, or Fiennes. Or Eddie Marsan, all of whom I liked very much. We’ll see.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Alt: Amy Adams

If there’s a “Button” sweep, then Taraji P. Henson will probably bump one of the above. Although neither stand a chance, I would love to see Tilda Swinton or Lena Olin on this list.

For screenplay, I’ll play it safe.

Original:
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Adapted:
…Button
Doubt
Frost / Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire



Until tomorrow......