The Final Five

After much too much mulling and fretting over this year’s Oscar nominees, I have arrived at my final picks and I’m sticking with them. Paul Dano? He's my wild card this year... if Blood makes an impressive showing tomorrow morning, I'm going out on a limb and betting he'll be swept along for the ride. Tommy Lee Jones, my other dark horse favorite, is also in this category and it's been fun/frustrating deciding which of them might make it into the final five. Of course to make room for one of them I had to let go of Hoffman which, by tomorrow afternoon, will most certainly prove to be the silliest call I've made thus far.

As for Atonement, it's all or nothing. I just don't believe the Academy has changed that much to ignore the kind of lavish "prestige" pick it has loved and honored for decades. (And besides, it's a really good movie). But if it doesn't get a Best Picture nod (and my hedging all bets on Joe Wright as an underdog is probably not wise), then I'd say Knightley and McAvoy --and possibly Ronan -- are out in the cold. It's been a wacky week, I must say, with opinions and predictions changing daily. My own best picture picks have swayed away from what I thought would be a DGA-inspired quintet. I've moved Juno up and dropped Diving Bell to runner-up status.
Oh well, it will all be over with in the morning. The nominations will at last be revealed and we can all move on to a fresh round of insanity.

So here we go: my fearless, perhaps foolhardy predictions. I started with no more than ten contenders per category. Those listed as alternates and surprises are, therefore, the runners up.

PICTURE
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Alternate: Into the Wild
Nice surprise: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, 3:10 to Yuma, Sweeney Todd, The Bourne Ultimatum

DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson
Joel and Ethan Coen
Sean Penn
Julian Schnabel
Joe Wright
Alternate: Tony Gilroy
Nice surprise: Sidney Lumet, Tim Burton, James Mangold, Paul Greengrass

ACTOR
George Clooney
Daniel Day-Lewis
Johnny Depp
James McAvoy
Denzel Washington
Alternate: Viggo Mortensen
Nice surprise: Emile Hirsch, Frank Langella, Josh Brolin

ACTRESS
Keira Knightley
Julie Christie
Marion Cotillard
Angelina Jolie
Ellen Page
Alternate: Cate Blanchett
Nice surprise: Laura Linney, Amy Adams, Helena Bonham-Carter, Nikki Blonsky

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck
Javier Bardem
Paul Dano
Hal Holbrook
Tom Wilkinson
Alternate: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Nice surprise: Ben Foster, Robert Downey Jr, Tommy Lee Jones

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett
Ruby Dee
Saoirse Ronan
Amy Ryan
Tilda Swinton
Alternate: Vanessa Redgrave
Nice surprise: Kelly Macdonald, Jennifer Garner, Allison Janney, Catherine Keener

The one that got away

Every year, in the final throes of Oscar madness, there's always that one movie that still burns bright in my memory and I wonder why it's not a contender. (And no, for once, believe it or not, I am not talking about Atonement.)

I refer instead to Zodiac, David Fincher's brooding and brazen crime thriller about the notorious serial killer who terrorized San Francisco in the 1960's and 70's. It's just as nerve-wracking as No Country for Old Men and equally well-acted, with Robert Downey Jr guaranteed -- or so I thought -- an Oscar nomination for his performance as reckless and on-the-brink crime reporter. Yet, it hasn't appeared as a favorite on very many year-end polls. Don't blame it on the violence, not in the year of Old Men and Eastern Promises (and that's just for starters).

I know, I know: there's always a reason. But I can figure this one out. If you haven't seen it yet, add it now to your Netflix queue. Now. It's not easy to watch, but there is plenty to admire.

And while we're on the subject of movies you don't want to watch alone in the dark... here's a big happy birthday wish to the great Tippi Hedren, star of, in my opinion, still the most wonderfully creepy movie ever made.

Another year, another countdown

And so the big day looms. Oscar nominations will be announced Tuesday morning, shrouded in doubt and uncertainty over the fate of the big show itself. This, however, has not hindered fans and fanatics form making their predictions in an especially heated, perhaps even frenzied, cycle of debates. I'd chalk this up to the number of really good movies released in 2007 which has resulted in an Oscar derby in which some genuine contenders will sadly be left in the dust.

I'll wait and make my own (traditionally misguided) predictions on Monday night. However, I'll go ahead and put my money on three nominees for the big prize: No Country for Old Men, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly and even There Will Be Blood (although it's chances, I am told, despite its passionate support in some circles, might be tad wobbly depending on how it ranks in the final balloting...)

Now here's an interesting tidbit: every year since the Hollywood Foreign Press began doling out their globes, the winner of Best Drama and/or Best Picture has gone on to earn a Best Picture nomination from the Academy. There is only one exception in more than sixty years: waaaay back in '55 neither of the Globes' winners, East of Eden and Guys and Dolls made it to the Oscars' final five. With this in mind, it would seem to me that Sweeney Todd and Atonement, both just annointed by the HFPA, are still in the running for a Best Picture nomination, with the latter perhaps having the better shot. I'm not saying it's guaranteed, but I think its chances are still pretty good.

Finally, one last hurrah to Ben Foster and Peter Fonda whose names, alas, will more than likely not be heard come Tuesday morning.

Let’s not waste time or energy discussing the debacle that was last night’s Golden Globes "press conference." And life is too short to even reflect back on the double whammy fright-fest known as Billy Bush and Nancy O’Dell. The event was so truly awful to begin with, but then having the Children of the Corn leading us through the horror of it all was more than I could endure.

But on to the awards. Although my predictions were indeed off the mark in more than one category, it was nice to see Atonement back in the race, having emerged from the Valley of the Guild Snubs. And Sweeney Todd snatching some much-deserved attention was also a good thing. This may possibly bodes well for the Oscar race, at least for Atonement. There are only three instances of a GG Best Drama not going on to earn a Best Picture nomination from the Academy: East of Eden, Spartacus and The Cardinal. In the comedy and/or musical category, the GG’s best picture winner isn’t always a sure thing for the Academy’s top five. Dreamgirls, Evita, A Star is Born, and Yentl –all winners according to the HFPA, not to mention my dear friend Ethel Cookies – did not do nearly so well with the Oscars. Can the same fate await Sweeney?

Honestly, I’m not sure if either has a strong chance, now that we know the Producers Guild nominations:

No Country For Old Men
The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
There Will Be Blood
Juno
Michael Clayton

These five films, along with Into the Wild (which nabbed a DGA nomination over Juno) have dominated the critics’ polls and guild nominations and thus seem to be the heavy hitters as we go into the home stretch.

On another note, on the TV side of the Golden Globes’ anointed few, there were some truly deserving victories: Glenn Close, Tina Fey, Extras, Jeremy Piven, and especially Jon Hamm and his terrific Mad Men from AMC, easily the best new dramatic series of the season. Don’t believe me? Repeats begin later this month. Be there. You won’t be sorry.

My predictions for the Globes are as follows. To what extent will a conference replacing Tinseltown's most gloriously awful awards gala impact the strike? It's all rather strange.

Poor Nikki Blonksy.

My picks:
No Country for Old Men

Juno

Joel & Ethan Coen

Daniel Day-Lewis

Julie Christie

Marion Cotillard

Javier Bardem

Cate Blanchett

Possible surprises/shockers: Ellen Page, Julian Schnabel, Saoirse Ronan (call me crazy).

It’s not looking good for Atonement. Joe Wright’s marvelous film, which only a few weeks ago seemed to be a shoo-in for serious Oscar consideration, has suddenly lost its steam after the Actors' , Writers’ and Directors’ guilds all decreed it unworthy of their nominations. At least the Art Directors s showed some appreciation, but having the ensemble, Christopher Hampton and Wright all being overlooked by their peers is really disappointing.

I just don’t get it. And neither do many others, given the postings and debates on various forums. Check out the banter and more than a hundred postings on ths very subject at Awards Daily to see what I mean. True, some of the reviews weren’t exactly rapturous, but other critics and moviegoers find it to be one of the best films of the year. That’s the camp to which I belong (and Peter Travers, too…see his review here. )

What bores me the most are those who whine and snipe, “It’s too Masterpiece Theatre! It’s too English Patient-y! Oh, please it is sooo Merchant-Ivory!!” Fine. And to each of them I say, kindly excuse me while I shove my tea and crumpets up your Howards End.

Atonement is great. It’s one of the best films of 2008, anchored by Hampton’s terrific adaptation of Ian McEwan’s lovely and difficult-to-adapt tome. And the performances are among the best of the year (I even loved Brenda Blethyn’s wild-eyed attack on the police car by moonlight). But what makes it such a treat for me is Joe Wright’s direction. Here’s a young guy who is obviously crazy about the magic of movies, and delights in nudging, sometime shoving the boundaries of this art form’s wizardry. I thought his take on Pride and Prejudice was delightful. Yes, I love the novel, too. And yes I loved Simon Langton’s 1995 five-hour adaptation that naturally gave us much more Austen. But Wright’s version still captured its essence, due, of course, in large part to Keira Knightley’s sumptuous performance which once and for all exorcised all memories of Greer Garson – and it also delighted us with that wonderful, show-offy tracking shot during which the camera weaved and danced throughout the ball at the Bingley manor.

This was obviously a warm-up for the greatest sequence in Atonement, and easily my favorite moment of any film this year, and that is the scene at Dunkirk. I read somewhere that this shot rolls on uninterrupted for more than five minutes. All I know is that I’m pretty sure my jaw dropped half way through. I thought about similar shots in Boogie Nights, and Goodfellas, and Touch of Evil. Maybe I’m just a sucker for showmanship. And maybe I’m losing some credibility here, but when a big sweeping historical romance comes along with all of its production values so absolutely right, then I’m very happy indeed.

I know it’s not over yet. Maybe the Globes will be kind. Let’s hope.

And So It Begins

Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men

Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

Sean Penn, Into the Wild

Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

The Countdown has begun. At least for me. Until today, I have been following the awards season hoopla and filling in my annual Oscar prediction charts with every new announcement from another critics’ circle. But the announcement of the DGA’s annual nominations is, for me, the official kick-off to another Oscar derby. Of course, whether there will actually be an Oscar derby this year remains to be seen. And it's not looking good.

Anyway, back to the Directors Guild. As in the past, probably four out of these annointed five will go on to earn a directing nomination from the Academy. And, thus, it follows that more than likely four of the five scoring a directing nom will also score for best picture. But it's never likely that that only five films will earn the complete trinity of nominations --DGA , Oscar Director,and Oscar Picture -- and this year is no different. I can't help but think that somewhere in here lurks a nod at Atonement or maybe Juno?

Gilroy is a nice surprise, but a surprise nevertheless. Given his relative newbie status and the fact that Michael Clayton was much admired but not embraced with quite as much fervor as the other four, I was expecting the fifth slot to go to Joe Wright, Mike Nichols, Tim Burton or perhaps, as an affectionate gesture, Sidney Lumet. Anyway, good for Tony. (And, let’s face it, he did write those three marvelous BOURNE scripts.) But does he, as they say, have the legs to take him into the Oscar race?

Although I may change my mind tomorrow, I would say that Anderson, Schnabel and the Coens will go the distance. And given how much the Academy loves honoring those actors-turned-directors (Redford, Beatty, Eastwood, Gibson, Streisand --- oops, well, male actors- turned-directors anyway ---) Penn also stands a good chance. My fifth prediction would probably go to Wright or Burton who, along with Schnabel and the Coens, earned nominations from HFPA and the Broadcast Critics. Then again, Anderson was snubbed by both groups, so what do I know?

For the one truly big mystery to me, for the one movie I really thought would be in hot competition right now, kindly read the following post.

See this movie. Right now.

So, one of the year’s very best movies hit the shelves at Blockbuster this week.

And I don’t mean Joshua.

I refer, of course, to James Mangold’s thrilling western yarn 3:10 to Yuma. How Mangold, editor Michael McCusker and that terrific company of actors have been routinely overlooked during this awards season is truly surprising. It’s easily in my top five of 2007 thus far and will no doubt remain there even after I catch the few remaining must-sees that have yet to open here. Russell Crowe and Christian Bale were both, in my obviously misguided appreciation, candidates for Oscar nominations. Ben Foster easily gave one of the best, most compelling supporting performances of the year and Peter Fonda, in an extended cameo, was equally good.

Maybe I just have a soft spot for really good westerns which for the most part have always been snubbed in awards circles and top ten lists. (Trust me, there’s more to the genre than just The Searchers which –dare I say it? – is overrated.)