The final countdown

It’s all over but the shouting, and predictions are now flying at full throttle all over the place. Over at Awards Daily, where I have pretty much been camping out the past few weeks, we at last have Daniel Kenealy’s projections for the big night. Of all the Oscar pundits out there, he’s one of the best. Enjoy his musings by clicking here.

As for yours truly, this is my 41st Oscar telecast. My first was the year “In the Heat of the Night” took best picture away from my top choice “Dr Dolittle”….. I mean, I was ten years old at the time and very sensitive; what do you expect? That was the telecasr in which Angela Lansbury brought down the house with her rendition of the title song from “Thoroughly Modern Millie,” a film which featured my then top contender for supporting actress, Carol Channing. Again, I was ten. A Dolittle/Millie/Camelot sweep would have made me very happy back then.

This was also the watershed year in American film, and thus the Oscars, that is analyzed so brilliantly in Pictures at a Revolution, Mark Harris’ GREAT book, one of the very best movies tomes I have read in years.

Looking back, I think the Academy actually got it right in several categories: Actor (Rod Steiger) Supporting Actress (Estelle Parsons), and director (Mike Nichols). However, “Bonnie and Clyde” is easily the best movie of the year and diehard Hepburn fan that I remain, I think the actress prize that year should have gone to Faye Dunaway or Anne Bancroft. Supporting actor? George Kennedy is an ok choice, but Gene Hackman would have been an equally good choice. “Bonnie and Clyde” rightfully won cinematography but its losses in editing and screenplay are a pity. Editing and adapted screenplay went to “In the Heat of the Night” which wasn’t a terrible choice (and editing and s'play often go to the best pic winner), but original screenplay was awarded to William Rose for “Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner? At the time, perhaps this sappy soaper trying so hard to be a “message picture” could be taken a bit more seriously, but time has not been kind. Oh, I still love it for all the wrong reasons, but when the Academy history books tell us that it deserved the gold over “Bonnie” (and not to mention Frederic Raphael’s sharp and bittersweet “Two for the Road”), well, what can you do but add it to that really long list of bad choices?

But enough about ’67. Here are my final predictions for ’08. Some of them aren’t my favorites, but after pondering these nominations far too long, it’s time to move on. So here we go:

BEST PICTURE
"Slumdog Millionaire"
---it’s a runaway train at this point, but I certainly welcome a spoiler (i.e. my personal favorite, “Milk” but I just don’t see that happening.)

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
---Gus Van Sant is my worthy runner-up

BEST ACTOR
Sean Penn, "Milk"
----if Mickey Rourke wins, that’s fine by me. In fact, I would love to see a tie.

BEST ACTRESS
Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
---my top choice, altho’ I could live with a surprise victory by Leo, Streep, Hathaway or Jolie. It’s been a good year for this category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
---perhaps THE best performance of the year; and I'd argue this is a leading performance

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
----my favorites in this category –Lena Olin, Rosemarie DeWitt and Kathy Bates—weren’t nominated. But Cruz is terrific here, and so is Tomei, who’s my choice among the nominees.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Dustin Lance Black, "Milk"
---- if “In Bruges” happens to sneak in here, that would be kind of lovely, although I do believe Black deserves this award.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Simon Beaufoy, "Slumdog Millionaire"
---- not my choice at all. David Hare gets my vote. Or possibly Peter Morgan.



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
"The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button," Claudio Miranda
---- personally, I’d go with Wally Pfister for “The Dark Knight” or Roger Deakins for "Revolutionary Road." Oops. Wait. He wasn't nominated.



BEST FILM EDITING
"Slumdog Millionaire"

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
"Slumdog Millionaire," A.R. Rahman
---- my pick is Thomas Newman for “Revolutionary Road.” Oh wait… it wasn’t nominated.

BEST ART DIRECTION
"The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button"

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
"The Duchess"
----I really liked this film; am surprised it didn’t find a bigger audience audience.

BEST SOUND MIXING
"The Dark Knight"

BEST SOUND EDITING
"The Dark Knight"

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
"The Class" (France)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"Man on Wire"

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Wall-E”

BEST SONG
“JAI HO” from “Slumdog Millionaire”

update, 2/22: after yesterday's wonderfully entertaining Independent Spirit love fest, I'm beginning to wonder if Mickey Rourke might actually prevail. Golden Globe, BAFTA and now this trophy. Three great speeches. And Loki died. It's officially a nail-biter til the envelope is finally opened later tonight.

In Good Company

This Slumdog juggernaut continues to intrigue me. This evening it won the ACE “Eddie” award for Best Edited Feature: Drama (Wall-E and Man on Wire won for Comedy and Documentary, respectively.)

Glancing back at all the Pre Oscar awards this season, it’s interesting to look at the few trophies that this movie HASN’T won. This includes a few of the established critics groups that gave their Best Picture citations to something else (NY went for Milk, NSFC for Bashir, and LA and Chicago for Wall-E)

So, with nothing better to do this evening, I took a look at best-picture-only awards over the past thirty odd years, going back to 1975 when the LA Critics began announcing their choices. At that time the group joined five other organizations already making annual awards: NBR, NSFC, NYFCC, Globes, and BAFTA. Taking these six groups –and only these six — for a tally of Best Picture awards, we get some interesting statistics.

Slumdog Millionaire got the majority this year, 3 out of 6. Not bad. With three wins, it’s keeping company with some other fine films which ultimately won Best Picture, such as ROTK and American Beauty, as well as several that did not (Sideways, Saving Private Ryan, and All the President’s Men, to name a few).

Slumdog did not do as well as a few others that actually nabbed 4 out of 6:
Brokeback Mountain, LA Confidential, Goodfellas and Terms of Endearment (the latter being the only one which actually won the Best Picture Oscar)

So far only one film actually went 6 for 6: Schindler’s List.

For what it is worth, Crash, Braveheart and (surprisingly) The Departed did not win a single one of these precursors. Amazing how a few wins from DGA, SAG, WGA, and the guilds can suddenly beef up your pre Oscar status, don’t you think?

The following films won the majority of these six precursor awards for their year. In the years not listed, a handful of films nabbed two apiece. And on two occasions, 1978 and 1988, every group named a different best picture winner.




Here are those, then, that made an impressive show:

2008 Slumdog — 3
2005 Brokeback Mountain — 4
2004 Sideways — 3
2003 ROTK — 3
1999 American Beauty – 3
1998 Saving Private Ryan — 3
1997 LA Confidential — 4
1995 Sense & Sensibility — 3
1993 Schindler’s List — 6. Perfect score.
1990 Goodfellas 4
1986 Hannah and Her Sisters – 3
1983 Terms of Endearment — 4
1982 Gandhi — 3
1980 Ordinary People — 3
1979 Kramer vs Kramer — 3
1977 Annie Hall – 3
1976 All the President’s Men — 3

I did not include Producers Guild, BFCA or Chicago since they are relatively new to the game. But a quick glance shows that the top films remain tops: Schindler picks up another two from PGA and Chicago (BFCA wasn’t awarding in 1993) and still holds the record with 8 out a possible 8. And of course you see Crash getting its award from Chicago and The Departed picking up Chicago and BFCA.

With all three of these newer awards under its belt, No Country becomes a contender (now with 5 total) but most of the others continue to expand their leads. So if you only go back to 1995 (in which the perfect score now becomes a nine), it’s still looking impressive – but not a slamdunk – for Slumdog. Here are the top films, with at least a majority of four out of the possible nine:

2008 Slumdog — 5
2007 No Country for Old Men –5
2005 Brokeback Mountain — 6
2004 Sideways — 5
2003 ROTK — 6
2000 Gladiator — 4
1999 American Beauty – 6
1998 Saving Private Ryan — 6
1997 LA Confidential — 6
1995 Sense & Sensibility — 4

One final note, going all the way back to the mid 1940s when BAFTA and The Hollywood Foreign Press jumped into the game, joining the New York Critics and National Board of Review, “Braveheart” and “The Godfather Part 2” remain to this day the only Best Picture Oscar winners not to claim any of these other best pic award. Even “The Greatest Show on Earth” won a Golden Globe.

So, by most accounts, the big victors next Sunday night will be:

Slumdog Millionaire
Sean Penn, Milk
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Heath Ledger. The Dark Knight
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Dustin Lance Black, original screenplay, Milk
Simon Beaufoy, adapted screenplay, Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E, animated film

We’ll get to the technical and music awards later.

This is a quick post, just to say that I’m not totally sure of this proposed outcome; call me crazy, but I’m still pondering

(a) what looks to me like a continued head-to-head race between Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn coming down the final stretch;

(b) the possibility of Milk also losing screenplay to Wall-E; and

(c) potential upsets in Actress (Meryl Streep?) and Supporting Actress (Marissa Tomei).

I’ve given up on Milk taking a surprise Best Picture and am resigned to the anticipated Slumdog sweep. This year I must admit that surprises in three of the four acting fields wouldn’t be too unsettling; there’s lots of great work to be celebrated: Streep, Leo, Hathaway, Jenkins, Langella, Tomei. Of course, it would be even nicer to see Rosemarie DeWitt, James Franco, Leonardo DiCaprio, Sally Hawkins and Ralph Fiennes in the mix, but you can’t have everything.

As expected, the WGA screenplay awards went to Simon Beaufoy and Dustin Lance Black (“Slumdog” and “Milk” respectively) this past Saturday night. Both gentlemen remain frontrunners for the Oscar, which is no surprise. I remain supportive of the Slumdog slamdunk, although I will always believe there are a few other equally deserving movies of 2008. I would begin with the screenplay award and encourage voters to also consider a few other adaptations, beginning with "The Reader."

The following evening, a rather deadly BAFTA gala confirmed most of the Academy’s frontrunners. Really, will anyone even bother to tune in to the Oscars on Feb 22nd? That is, anyone other than me? Methinks this will be the worst year ever in regards to the ratings. After the Golden Globs and SAG extravanzas (as well as BFCA and BAFTA galas available for anyone willing to go to the trouble to find them on cable), how can this year's meat parade offer anything that most viewers have seen already?

Back to Sunday night's BAFTAcast, there were a few highlights, of course, to enliven the snoozefest:
---the endless cutaways to Kate Winslet and mum with Robert Downey Jr behind them, smacking his gum and looking bored out of his mind. Can you blame him?
---Mickey’s acceptance speech;
---Goldie Hawn presenting the Heath award; and
---Mick Jagger.
That’s it. Seen here in a taped delay on BBC America, the 2 ½ hours seemed endless, but compared to recent Oscarcasts, absolutely breezy.

The winners were predictable and, for the most part, I think we’re looking at this year’s Oscar honor roll (with possible alternatives to Actor and Original screenplay). I was most happy when The Duchess nabbed the costume award, and I hope it does likewise at the Oscars.

BEST PICTURE: Slumdog Millionaire
BEST DIRECTOR: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ACTRESS: Kate Winslet, The Reader
BEST ACTOR: Micky Rourke, The Wrestler
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
ANIMATED FILM: WALL•E
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE: I’ve Loved You So Long
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
COSTUMES: The Duchess
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Slumdog Millionaire
VISUAL EFFECTS: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
MAKEUP and HAIR: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SCORE: AR Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
SOUND: Slumdog Millionaire
EDITING: Slumdog Millionaire

The scribes get honored this evening when the WGA announces its 2008 awards. Look for Simon Beaufoy and Dustin Lance Black to take the honors for “Slumdog” (adaptation) and “Milk” (original) respectively. I’m also predicting them as front-runners for the writing Oscars. At this point, any other choices would be a bit of surprise. For the past couple of years, WGA and Oscar winners have gone hand in hand; I see no reason why this won't continue (unless, of course, "Wall-E" manages to grab the Oscar over "Milk" on February 22nd. We'll see.)

On the small screen front, where are several more awards, I’d say that “Mad Men” is a strong and worthy contender, although I wouldn’t be upset if my favorite underdog, “Friday Night Lights” stole the spotlight. Comedy-wise, I still admire “The Office” over “30 Rock” but I’d say the safe money is on Fey and friends.

Here's an interesting stroy from EW.com about Harvey Weinstein's campaign for "The Reader." Although I believe Winslet's win is almost guaranteed, a Best Picture victory would be an upset on the scale of "Crash" or "Chariots of Fire." Personally, I would be very happy to see "The Reader" or "Milk" stump "Slumdog" but I just don't see that happening. Anyway, it's at least something to ponder during this otherwise boring countdown to the Oscars.

WGA and BAFTA announce this weekend. More "Slumdog" victories are predicted (and it's hard to get too frustrated when Boyle, Beaufoy, Patel and company always appear so genuinely thrilled) However, let's hope that Dustin Lance Black earns his WGA for "Milk" and maybe also a surprise or two at the BAFTAs, just to keep things interesting.

Wrapping up my thoughts on the precursor awards, let’s turn to the BAFTAs which will be presented this Sunday evening (and telecast on BBCA America starting at 7 pm Central ) . These awards are always a bit unpredictable for me. The winners in the acting categories often go on to win an Oscar. But the best picture choices are sometimes quite different from the Academy’s and, more often than not are more, well, “British” in subject. For example last year BAFTA picked “Atonement” rather than “No Country for Old Men”. The year before it went for “The Queen” rather than “The Departed.”

BAFTAs five Best Picture nominees mirror the Oscar’s. I’d say that “Slumdog” has the strong lead based on its frontrunner popularity and its British roots. If there should be an upset, although that’s highly unlikely, I would bet on either “Frost / Nixon” or “The Reader.”

As far as the actors go, last year BAFTA went for Day-Lewis, Cotillard, Bardem and Swinton. The Oscars did the same. The year before that it was Whitaker, Mirren, Arkin and Hudson. Ditto the Oscars. (Given that Swinton and Arkin were not necessarily frontrunners, their BAFTA wins added, at least for me, a bit of suspense going into the Oscars that year.)

My predictions for Sunday night
“Slumdog Millionaire”
Danny Boyle
Sean Penn
Kate Winslet
Penelope Cruz
Heath Ledger
In Bruges (original screenplay)
The Reader (adapted screenplay…. I’m going out on a limb here. Simon Beaufoy probably has the lead, but if “Slumdog” takes picture and director, they may want to spread the wealth just a little).

Picking over the Precursors

Over the course of this awards season, “Slumdog Millionaire” has managed a rather remarkable sweep of Best Picture prizes. For starters, it has snagged the top award from the Directors Guild, the Producers Guild, The Broadcast Critics Association, Screen Actors Guild for Best Ensemble and the Golden Globe. Not bad. Only three other films have accomplished this, and they have all gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar: “American Beauty,” “LOTR: The Return of the King” and “Chicago.” In addition, “Beauty” and “King” also took the best picture award at BAFTA. If "Slumdog" wins the BAFTA honor later this week, it looks like a done deal. (Actually, I think its Oscar victory is foregone conclusion at this point).

This sweep of the precursors is not at 100%, however. All four of the above-mentioned films start to stumble when it comes to those other awards: The National Board of Review, The National Society of Film Critics, and the critics groups from New York, LA and Chicago.

Of this quintet, only the NBR went for “Slumdog.” New York crowned “Milk,” LA & Chicago chose “Wall-E” and the NSFC cited “Waltz with Bashir.” (Now, in all fairness, it should be pointed out that NSFC has only agreed with the Academy’s Best Picture choice four times –4, count ‘em 4-- since it started handing out awards back in ’66.)

The “American Beauty’” juggernaut was broken up by “Topsy-Turvy” which took top honors from NY and NSFC (the latter in a tie with “Being John Malkovich”). “Return of the King” was not loved by NBR which went for “Mystic River” nor NSFC and LA which opted for “American Splendor.”

To find the one-and-only film that appealed to all groups, you need to go back to 1993 when “Schindler’s List” took the top prize from all of these groups. (All but SAG and BFCA which had not yet begun doling out prizes). Now that’s what I really call a sweep. Before “Schindler,” we need to wind our way back to the mid 60s when “Tom Jones” and “A Man For All Seasons” pulled similar grand slams (but with fewer awards organizations).



So let’s take a minute or two and look back at these other groups and how from year to year, their selections align (or not) with those of the Academy.

For the few years, the Oscars stood alone. Then by the mid 1930s The New York Film Critics and The National Board of Review entered the game. These two new groups often agreed on a Best Picture choice that was different from the Academy’s, which isn’t all that surprising since both groups were free of the politics of Tinseltown, not to mention the power and tyranny of Louis B. Mayer and friends. They selected “The Grapes of Wrath” (1940) when AMPAS went for “Rebecca,” and the following year they agreed on “Citizen Kane” over “How Green Was My Valley” They also both had the good taste in ’42 to agree on “In Which Serve” as the year’s best movie, instead of the creaky “Mrs. Miniver.”

The Golden Globes entered the derby in 1943, followed by both the Directors Guild and BAFTA by the end of the decade. With six groups now handing out awards it would not be until 1957 when all reached a consensus on Best Picture: David Lean’s “The Bridge on the River Kwai.” Two years later “Ben Hur” came close but was denied its grand slam when the NBR opted for “The Nun’s Story.”

1963 saw the next across-the-board agreement with “Tom Jones.” “A Man for All Season” enjoyed a similar sweep a couple of years later..

NSFC announced their first Best Picture in 1966 (for “Blow Up,” introducing right from the start a selection of best pic choices that would run counter to the Academy’s choices. It went with “Persona” the following year, then “Shame,” and then “Z.” “MASH” would be the first American film to nab its top prize. )

The LA critics started posting in 1975 with a tie between “…Cuckoo’s Nest” and “Dog Day Afternoon.” Chicago started announcing in 1988 followed by the Producers Guild the following year.

By this point, it was becoming increasingly less likely for the ever-growing number of groups to agree on any year’s best picture. Looking back over the last 20 or so years, let’s review the breakdown. Not so surprisingly, more often than not the film that racked up the most precursor best film mentions became the Oscar victor as well. But there are, of course, some exceptions. These are the champs:

1989: Driving Miss Daisy, 4 out of 9 awards
1990: Goodfellas , 5 out of 9 (Oscar’s BP Dances with Wolves took 4)
1991: Silence of the Lambs, 5 out of 9
1992: Unforgiven, 3 out of 9
1993: Schindler’s List, 9 out 9
1994: Forrest Gump 3.5 out of 9

At this point SAG and PGA enter the picture, upping the total possible Best Picture wins to 11.

1995: (tie) Sense & Sensibility & Apollo 13, both with 4 out of 11 (Oscar’s BP Braveheart did not get a single vote from these groups)
1996: The English Patient, 4 out of 11
1997: LA Confidential, 6 out of 11 (Oscar’s BP Titanic took 3
1998: Saving Private Ryan 7 out of 11 (Oscar’s BP Shakespeare in Love took 3)
1999: American Beauty 8 out of 11
2000: Gladiator 3 out of 11
2001: (3-way tie) A Beautiful Mind, Mulholland Drive, and Moulin Rouge!, all with 3 out of 11
2002: Chicago, 5 out of 11
2003: LOTR: Return of the King, 8 out of 11
2004: Sideways, 6 out of 11 (Oscar’s BP Million Dollar Baby took 3)
2005: Brokeback Mountain, 7 out of 11 (Oscar’s BP Crash took 2)
2006: (tie) The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine, both with 3 out of 11
2007: No Country for Old Men, 7 out of 11

31 Days

I stumbled across “The Great Caruso” on TCM while having lunch today. Not a great movie, but how often can you see Mario Lanza canoodling with Ann Blyth while you’re knocking down a bowl chicken soup?

It’s part of the network’s fabulous annual 31 Days of Oscar. All the usual suspects in the TCM library --“2001” “Citizen Kane” “Lawrence of Arabia”-- are on the docket. But what makes this festival so enjoyable are some of the seldom seen chestnuts that they pull out of the vaults. To qualify, a film simply needs to have earned at least one Oscar nomination. This provides much-deserved airtime for several rather obscure chestnuts. But it also has it drawbacks. Do we really need to see “Yes, Giorgio” ever again?

Click here for the full schedule.

Hats off to Danny Boyle and his DGA victory. This latest accomplishment all but guarantees the big prizes on Oscar night. Slumdog may not be my favorite movie of the year, but Boyle's accomplishments are certainly worthy of the hullabaloo. Now that Nolan is (unfairly) out of the race, I'd say that Boyle has it in the proverbial bag.

If you're all caught up on your Oscar movies, this might be a good time to check out Shallow Grave, Boyle's excellent debut feature (which won him, among other kudos, the Best British Film of the Year prize from BAFTA). It's three principals are perfectly cast: Kerry Fox, Ewan McGregor and one of my favorite actors, Christopher Eccleston. And there's that terrific screenplay by John Hodge, who would go on to work with Boyle and McGregor on the brilliant Trainspotting a year or so later.

So, if you don't know this one, add it to your Neflix list. You won't be sorry. It might not have the drive of Trainspotting or Slumdog, but it's certainly better than The Beach.