The Final Five?

And so, with the announcement of the DGA nominations, this year’s frenzy of Oscar speculations begins, at last and as always, to narrow down to the chosen few.
This year’s noms:
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris, Little Miss Sunshine
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed

For me, the only real surprise --and a nice one, at that-- was seeing Dayton and Faris on this list (I thought it would be Eastwood). It has been a long time since a directing team got a nomination here. I think we may have to look all the way back to 1978 when Warren Beatty and Buck Henry for their shared duties on Heaven Can Wait.

Anyway, the five films represented here may very well be the five films that grab the Best Picture Oscar nomination. Looking back, the majority of films that snag a DGA nomination find themselves in the running for the Academy’s top prize.

Oddly enough, they have a better chance of taking a Best Picture nomination than Best Director. Although last year the same five went for DGA, Oscar’s Best Director and Best Picture, that is rarely the case. The year before better represents what I’m yammering about. The DGA nominated:
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Marc Forster, Finding Neverland
Taylor Hackford, Ray
Alexander Payne, Sideways

The Academy went with four out of the five, but swapped out Marc Forster in favor of Mike Leigh (for Vera Drake). Yet the five Best Picture choices were Baby, Aviator, Neverland, Ray and Sideways.

The year before the Academy went with four of the five, but snubbed DGA choice Gary Ross (Seabiscuit) and went instead for Fernando Meirelles (City of God). Seabiscuit, however, rebounded with a Best Pic pick.

Are you following this? Does anybody care? I do. But please don’t ask me why. Any thoughts on who may miss out on the Directing nomination but still might swing one for Best Picture? My guess would be Dayton and Faris. Clint will take that slot away from them, but their Little Miss Sunshine will still be in the running for Best Picture.
We’ll see.